Oil executives bemoan Trump's energy policy 'chaos,' Dallas Fed survey says

Pessimism is rising among U.S. oil and gas executives, many of whom are increasingly frustrated with the Trump administration's trade policies and regulatory changes, according to the Q3 regional survey released this week by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

The Dallas Fed survey was conducted September 10-18 and measured the sentiments of 139 oil and gas executives in the bank's coverage area of Texas, northern Louisiana and southern New Mexico - an area that accounts for more energy production than some of the world's biggest producers.

"The U.S. shale business is broken," one of the respondents said, according to the survey. "What was once the world's most dynamic energy engine has been gutted by political hostility and economic ignorance."

"We have begun the twilight of shale," another executive said. "The U.S. isn't running out of oil, but she sure is running out of $60 per barrel oil."

"A vibrant oilfield services sector is critical if and when the U.S. needs to ramp up production. Right now we are bleeding," an oil and gas support service firm executive said.

The comments against Trump's policies are not new, but analysts said the latest publication marked an escalation in tone and warning for the future, as the executives cited the president's steel tariffs and abrupt shifts in energy policy as "kneecapping" an industry he pledged to help.

The survey also found the executives believe prices for West Texas Intermediate will close much lower than previously expected, anticipating crude will close out 2025 at ~$63/bbl and remain in the $60s through 2027; in Q2, the executives forecast WTI at ~$68/bbl to end the year before hitting the $70s again in two years.

Crude oil futures rose for the week, sparked by rising geopolitical risk premium on continuing Ukraine attacks on Russian oil facilities and the potential for additional European Union and U.S. sanctions.

The drone strikes are beginning to add up, and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Thursday that Russia will introduce a partial ban on diesel exports until the end of the year and extend an existing ban on gasoline exports.

President Trump also continues to pressure U.S. allies to reduce Russian imports, and "we might see India and Turkey reduce some of their Russian imports," according to Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.

NATO's warning of a response to further airspace violations by Russia also has ratcheted up tensions and raised prospects of additional sanctions on Russia's oil industry.

Also, crude oil exports are scheduled to resume Saturday from Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, the state news agency said.

This week, front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM) for November delivery closed +5.3% to $65.72/bbl, and front-month Brent crude (CO1:COM) for November delivery settled +5.2% to $70.13/bbl - the largest one-week percentage gain for both benchmarks since the week ending June 13 - and front-month Nymex October natural gas (NG1:COM) ended +0.5% to $3.206/MMBtu.

On Friday, Nymex crude, Brent crude and U.S. natural gas gained 1.1%, 1% and 0.3%, respectively.

ETFs: (NYSEARCA:USO), (BNO), (NYSEARCA:UCO), (SCO), (USL), (DBO), (DRIP), (GUSH), (USOI), (UNG), (BOIL), (KOLD), (UNL), (FCG), (NYSEARCA:XLE)

Energy stocks, as represented by the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLE), ended the week +3.9%.

Top 20 gainers in energy and natural resources in the past 5 days: Lithium Americas (LAC) +94.7%, Flux Power (FLUX) +47.3%, Amplify Energy (AMPY) +35.8%, American Battery Technology (ABAT) +32.7%, Fluence Energy (FLNC) +27.2%, Ivanhoe Electric (IE) +26.2%, ADS-TEC Energy (ADSE) +24.7%, Standard Lithium (SLI) +22.9%, Atlas Lithium (ATLX) +20.9%, Cool Company (CLCO) +18.5%, Spruce Power (SPRU) +18.2%, Lightbridge (LTBR) +17.4%, Tigo Energy (TYGO) +17.1%, W&T Offshore (WTI) +17%, Almonty Industries (ALM) +16.9%, Vital Energy (VTLE) +16.7%, Comstock Resources (CRK) +16.6%, Liberty Energy (LBRT) +16.3%, Crescent Energy (CRGY) +16.2%, Sigma Lithium (SGML) +16%.

Top 5 decliners in energy and natural resources in the past 5 days: Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) -20.4%, NuScale Power (SMR) -18.7%, Oklo (OKLO) -18.3%, Cosan (CSAN) -18.2%, OMS Energy Technologies (OMSE) -17.8%.

Source: Barchart.com