原创精选> 正文
谁动了特斯拉的奶酪？
2017-10-05 11:00
每当一家新公司带着新产品进入一个现有市场时，我们通常会说，如果拿到1%的市场份额就算成功了。现在全球电动汽车市场每年约有1亿台销售量，如果特斯拉只占有其1%，就是每年100万台左右，已经远远超过特斯拉现有工厂的产量。因此，不用等到2020年就需要新建或者扩张工厂。
就这一点，相信大家都是认同的，“1%的电动汽车市场听起来很合理，为什么不会呢？”听起来的确很容易，只是要1%的市场份额，大家都很确定这个1%是容易拿到的。
然而，特斯拉很容易拿到全球市场的1%，那么其他新的竞争者同样也会很容易分走特斯拉市场份额的1%。不到一年以前，特斯拉刚刚面临了第一个直接竞争者——通用汽车的Bolt电动汽车。这款电动汽车和特斯拉的Model S是竞品，并且使特斯拉美国市场的增长率从其目标的50%下滑了6个点，这仅仅是一款竞品车带来的影响。那么当其他竞争者纷纷进入这个市场后，特斯拉将会怎样呢？
2016年12月特斯拉在三厢四座的电动汽车（续航能力200英里以上）市场还有着100%的市占率。但之后上市的Chevrolet Bolt电动车改变了这一切。
下表包含了主要的电动汽车制造厂商将要推出的新产品，其中有部分车型仅在部分地区（欧洲和北美或中国和北美）有售，大部分厂商计划在2022年之前推出5-10款电动车型。因此，通用的Bolt电动汽车在特斯拉的蛋糕上咬下第一口之后，接踵而至的其他竞争者将会怎样呢？
| 时间
|
车型
|
特斯拉市场剩余份额
|
| 2018.06
|
Jaguar i-Pace
|
98%
|
| 2018.09
|
Audi eTron
|
97%
|
| 2018.11
|
Hyundai Kona EV
|
96%
|
| 2018.12
|
Nissan LEAF 230 mile range version
|
95%
|
| 2019.03
|
Mercedes EQC
|
94%
|
| 2019.05
|
Volvo SPA 60-90 EV
|
93%
|
| 2019.06
|
Renault Zoe 200 mile range version
|
92%
|
| 2019.07
|
Buick "Crossover Bolt" EV
|
91%
|
| 2019.08
|
Audi eTron Sportback EV
|
90%
|
| 2019.09
|
Porsche Mission-E
|
89%
|
| 2019.10
|
Nissan Crossover EV
|
88%
|
| 2019.11
|
MINI EV
|
87%
|
| 2019.11
|
Hyundai hatchback EV
|
86%
|
| 2019.12
|
Land Rover Road Rover EV
|
85%
|
| 2020.01
|
Lynk (Geely/Volvo) EV
|
84%
|
| 2020.02
|
Volkswagen ID
|
83%
|
| 2020.03
|
Infiniti EV
|
82%
|
| 2020.04
|
Ford SUV EV
|
81%
|
| 2020.04
|
Fiat hatchback EV
|
80%
|
| 2020.05
|
BMW X3 EV
|
79%
|
| 2020.06
|
Mercedes EQA
|
78%
|
| 2020.07
|
Volvo 40-series EV
|
77%
|
| 2020.08
|
Citroen hatchback EV
|
76%
|
| 2020.08
|
Chevrolet crossover EV
|
75%
|
| 2020.09
|
Audi e-Tron A-Class EV
|
74%
|
| 2020.09
|
Honda sedan EV
|
73%
|
| 2020.10
|
Volkswagen ID Crozz
|
72%
|
| 2020.10
|
Nissan midsize SUV EV
|
71%
|
| 2020.11
|
Kia Soul 200 mile range EV
|
70%
|
| 2020.11
|
Hyundai midsize sedan EV
|
69%
|
| 2020.12
|
Maserati crossover EV
|
68%
|
| 2020.12
|
Peugeot crossover EV
|
67%
|
| 2020.12
|
Renault compact crossover EV
|
66%
|
| 2021.01
|
Porsche SUV EV
|
65%
|
| 2021.01
|
Lynk (Geely/Volvo) sedan EV
|
64%
|
| 2021.02
|
Hyundai crossover SUV EV
|
63%
|
| 2021.02
|
DS hatchback-sedan EV
|
62%
|
| 2021.03
|
Genesis crossover SUV EV
|
61%
|
| 2021.03
|
Buick large crossover EV
|
60%
|
| 2021.04
|
Mitsubishi crossover SUV EV
|
59%
|
| 2021.04
|
Audi flagship sedan EV
|
58%
|
| 2021.05
|
Kia large SUV EV
|
57%
|
| 2021.06
|
Bentley sedan EV
|
56%
|
| 2021.06
|
Volvo Polestar sedan EV
|
55%
|
| 2021.07
|
Mercedes GLE EV
|
54%
|
| 2021.07
|
BMW i-Next
|
53%
|
| 2021.08
|
NIO es8
|
52%
|
| 2021.08
|
GMC SUV EV
|
51%
|
| 2021.08
|
Acura small crossover EV
|
50%
|
| 2021.09
|
Honda hatchback EV
|
49%
|
| 2021.09
|
Subaru crossover EV
|
48%
|
| 2021.09
|
Volkswagen large SUV EV
|
47%
|
| 2021.10
|
Volvo Polestar coupe EV
|
46%
|
| 2021.10
|
Toyota crossover EV
|
45%
|
| 2021.10
|
Toyota crossover EV
|
44%
|
| 2021.11
|
Mazda crossover EV
|
43%
|
| 2021.11
|
Land Rover SUV EV
|
42%
|
| 2021.11
|
Nissan compact crossover EV
|
41%
|
| 2021.11
|
Renault midsize MPV EV
|
40%
|
| 2021.12
|
Skoda crossover EV
|
39%
|
| 2021.12
|
Volvo large SUV EV
|
38%
|
| 2021.12
|
Genesis compact crossover EV
|
37%
|
| 2022.01
|
Maserati sports sedan EV
|
36%
|
| 2022.01
|
Kia compact crossover EV
|
35%
|
| 2022.01
|
SEAT crossover EV
|
34%
|
| 2022.02
|
Rolls Royce crossover EV
|
33%
|
| 2022.02
|
Mercedes compact SUV EV
|
32%
|
| 2022.02
|
Honda large SUV EV
|
31%
|
| 2022.03
|
Alfa Romeo crossover EV
|
30%
|
| 2022.03
|
Peugeot hatchback EV
|
29%
|
| 2022.03
|
Hyundai midsize SUV EV
|
28%
|
| 2022.04
|
Jeep EV
|
27%
|
| 2022.04
|
Infiniti sports sedan EV
|
26%
|
| 2022.04
|
Lexus flagship sedan EV
|
25%
|
| 2022.05
|
VW Microbus EV
|
24%
|
| 2022.05
|
Jaguar sports sedan EV
|
23%
|
| 2022.06
|
Lincoln crossover EV
|
22%
|
| 2022.06
|
Toyota hatchback EV
|
21%
|
| 2022.07
|
Cadillac crossover EV
|
20%
|
| 2022.07
|
Porsche large SUV EV
|
19%
|
| 2022.07
|
Kia small hatchback EV
|
18%
|
| 2022.08
|
Chrysler minivan EV
|
17%
|
| 2022.08
|
Ford midsize hatchback EV
|
16%
|
| 2022.08
|
Chevrolet Corvett-e
|
15%
|
| 2022.08
|
Mitsubishi large SUV EV
|
14%
|
| 2022.08
|
Buick compact crossover EV
|
13%
|
| 2022.09
|
Mercedes large sedan EV
|
12%
|
| 2022.09
|
BMW i5
|
11%
|
| 2022.09
|
Honda SUV EV
|
10%
|
| 2022.09
|
Skoda compact crossover EV
|
9%
|
| 2022.10
|
Genesis large SUV EV
|
8%
|
| 2022.10
|
Volkswagen midsize sedan EV
|
7%
|
| 2022.10
|
Mazda hatchback EV
|
6%
|
| 2022.10
|
Renault midsize sedan EV
|
5%
|
| 2022.11
|
Lexus crossover EV
|
4%
|
| 2022.11
|
Dodge muscle car EV
|
3%
|
| 2022.11
|
Audi compact SUV EV
|
2%
|
| 2022.12
|
Acura crossover EV
|
1%
|
| 2022.12
|
BMW i7
|
0%
|
| 2022.12
|
Nissan sedan-hatchback EV
|
-1%
|
| 2022.12
|
Mercedes midsize sedan-hatchback EV
|
-2%
|
通过上表，我们已经得出特斯拉的市占率将在2020年降为0的结论。
