經濟學人：巴西航空迅猛崛起

　　來源：五一干點兒啥

　　The Economist August 1st 2026

　　Forget Airbus and Boeing

　　Embraer is soaring

　　Its boss has ambitious plans for the future

　　忘了空客、波音，巴西航空工業迅猛崛起

　　公司負責人對未來雄心勃勃

　　1、S OME PASSENGER planes are named with purely utilitarian alphanumerics： think Airbus’s A 380． Occasionally the aerospace giants aim to convey something loftier． Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner presents an image of modern comfort； Airbus’s A 320neo highlights its use of the latest in aviation technology． Embraer， the world’s third-largest maker of passenger jets， takes a blunter approach． Since2017 it has marketed its fuel-efficient  E 2 regional jet as the 「ProfitHunter」．

　　往往客機純粹用字母和數字命名，如空客A380。有時這些航空巨頭試圖傳達更崇高的理念。波音787夢幻客機傳遞出科技舒適的形象；空客A320neo突顯航空技術的最新應用。而作為全球第三大民用飛機制造商，巴西航空工業公司Embraer採取更直接的方式。2017年來，該公司一直將燃油效率極高的E2支線客機定位為「利潤獵手」。 

　　2、The Brazilian company is a fraction of the size of Airbus and Boeing． But it has had a remarkable few years． Demand is soaring not only for its smaller passenger planes， but also for the private and military jets it offers． In 2021 the company delivered a total of 141 planes． This year it might reach 255． On July 24th the company reported that its order backlog had reached a record $34.5bn． Francisco Gomes Neto， Embraer’s boss， sees an opportunity for 「substantial growth」 ahead． Investors agree． Since the start of 2021 its share price has risen roughly ten-fold， far outpacing those of Airbus or Boeing （see chart）． Some now speculate that Embraer may take a tilt at the market for larger jets， going nose-to-nose with the aerospace industry’s twin giants．

　　這家巴西企業的規模僅為空客和波音的小部分。然而，它在過去幾年取得顯著成就。不僅小型客機的需求激增，它提供的私人和軍用飛機也受到熱烈追捧。2021年，該公司共交付141架飛機。今年是255架。7月24日，公司宣佈backlog創紀錄的訂單量345億美元。巴西航空工業公司首席執行官弗朗西斯科·戈麥斯·內託Francisco Gomes Neto認為，還有巨大的增長空間。投資者對此表示認同。2021年初以來，該公司股價上漲約十倍，遠超空客和波音（見圖）。目前推測，巴西航空工業公司Embraer或將進軍大型噴氣機市場，與航空航天行業的兩大巨頭正面競爭。 

　　3、Embraer is benefiting from a number of tailwinds． Airlines these days must wait eight to ten years for a large narrow-body plane from Airbus or Boeing， which have a combined order backlog of 16，000 passenger jets thanks to rising demand for air travel and long-running supply-chain snags dating back to the covid-19 pandemic． That has led to a surge in demand for the smaller E 2， which can be delivered in less than two years．

　　Embraer受益於多種因素。如今，航空公司須等待8到10年才能獲得空客或波音生產的大型窄體飛機，而這兩家公司的訂單積壓量高達16，000架客機，主要是航空旅行需求上升及新冠疫情以來積累的供應鏈問題所致。這導致小型E2機型的需求激增，該機型目前可在兩年內交付。 

　　4、A growing preference for direct travel between smaller airports rather than through giant hubs will further boost demand for smaller planes to fly new routes， says Ron Baur of Azorra， a leasing firm that has over 50 E 2s on order． The aircraft’s only direct competitor by size is the A 220 from Airbus， in a market that Embraer forecasts at 8，500 such planes over the next two decades． As Mr Gomes Neto points out， even if it is only half that number and Embraer gets half the orders， the demand will still occupy its production capacity for 20 years． Moreover， Embraer’s even smaller E 175 jet is the only aircraft in production that is available to regional feeder airlines in America， owing to collective bargaining agreements with pilots’ unions that restrict the maximum size of plane they can use．

　　Azorra租賃公司負責人Ron Baur表示，人們傾向於從小型機場直接出發，而非經由大型樞紐中轉，對小型飛機執飛新航線的需求進一步增長。該公司已訂購超50架E2機型。在當前市場中，E2的唯一同尺寸直接競爭對手是空客A220，Embraer預計未來二十年內該類飛機的市場需求達到8，500架。正如Gomes Neto先生指出，即使實際訂單僅一半，Embraer獲得一半的訂單量，其產能仍將滿足持續20年的需求。此外，由於飛行員工與航空公司簽訂的集體談判協議限制飛機的最大尺寸，巴西航空工業公司Embraer生產的小型E175噴氣式飛機是目前美國地區支線航空運營商唯一可獲得機型。 

　　5、Then there is the surge in private-jet sales that has been under way since the pandemic． Embraer is dominant in the market for small and medium-sized models． Its Phenom 300， which seats up to ten passengers， has been the best seller in its class for 14 years． Booming defence spending around the world has also lifted orders for the KC 390， a military-transport plane． And a controlling stake in EVE ， a flying-taxi firm， looks a better bet now that the vast number of startups in the field has been whittled down to a handful of plausible survivors．

　　另外疫情以來，私人飛機銷售持續增長。Embraer在中小型機型市場佔據主導地位。其Phenom 300型號最多可容納十名乘客，已連續14年成為同級別中的暢銷機型。全球國防開支的大幅增加推動軍用運輸機KC-390訂單量上升。而隨着該領域大量初創企業削減，在少數的倖存者中，Embraer對飛行出租公司EVE的控股看起來更具吸引力。 

　　6、Yet Mr Gomes Neto thinks he must 「prepare the company for a new cycle of products that will support more ambitious growth」． One possibility is to make a large private jet． A bolder and riskier step would be to develop a bigger commercial jet to take on Airbus and Boeing， which are expected to roll out replacements for their corenarrow-body planes towards the end of the 2030s． Neither has much incentive to make big investments while the current ones are selling well， which could create an opening for Embraer． Breaking the duopoly’s grip would be a huge undertaking．

　　然而，戈麥斯·內託先生認為，他必須「為公司做好準備，迎接一個更宏大增長的新產品周期」。一種可能的選擇是製造大型私人飛機；而更具膽識、風險更大的舉措，是開發一款新的商用客機，挑戰空客和波音，這兩家巨頭預計在2040年前推出主力窄體飛機的替代機型。目前的項目銷售表現良好，而埃姆布拉航空Embraer又缺乏足夠動力進行大規模投資，這可能為該公司創造機會。打破寡頭壟斷局面將是一項艱鉅的任務。

　　7、Bombardier’s attempt nearly bankrupted it and ended in a forced sale of the programme for a nominal sum to Airbus in 2018 （where it became the A 220）． Guillaume Faury， Airbus’s boss， has warned Embraer to 「think twice」． Yet the rewards of taking even a small share of a market that Boeing puts at 36，000 jets over the next two decades would also be far greater than for a new private jet． Ron Epstein of Bank of America says it would take Embraer to the 「next level」．

　　龐巴迪曾試圖將其拖垮，並於2018年被迫以微薄價格將該項目出售給空中客車Airbus，該機型后來成為A220。空中客車負責人紀堯姆·福里Guillaume Faury警告埃姆布拉航空「三思而后行」。然而，即便在接下來二十年內，波音計劃推出36，000架噴氣式客機的市場中，埃姆布拉航空若能獲得哪怕小份額，回報也將遠超一款新型私人飛機。美國銀行的羅恩·愛潑斯坦Ron Epstein表示，這將使埃姆布拉航空邁向「下一階段」。

　　8、Embraer may never again have such an opportunity to put its experience in manufacturing and marketing commercial jets to work． Mr Gomes Neto points out that over 20 years or so it has certified almost 20 new aircraft—an impressive performance． The firm’s reputation means that prospective customers would take it seriously．

　　埃姆布拉航空或再難有機會將自身在商用飛機制造和營銷方面的經驗付諸實踐。戈麥斯·內託先生指出，近20年來，該公司已認證近20款新飛機，令人印象深刻。公司良好的聲譽意味着潛在的客户。

　　9、But it would need to find partners to stump up some of the $10bn or so that the new plane would cost to develop， says Alberto Valerio of UBS ， a bank， including perhaps an engine-maker and other suppliers， as well as customers and outside investors． The question of whether to go after the duopoly is rumoured to divide opinion at Embraer． Luckily it has plenty of time to make a decision． As Mr Gomes Neto insists： 「We are very comfortable with the situation we have」． ■

　　但要找到合作伙伴，共籌新機型研發所需資金約100億美元，UBS銀行阿爾貝託·瓦萊里奧表示，這些合作伙伴包括發動機制造商及其他供應商，客户和外部投資者。關於是否爭奪寡頭地位，據傳巴西航空工業公司Embraer內部有分歧。幸運的是，該公司有充足的時間決定。正如戈麥斯·內託先生堅持：「我們對前景非常滿意。」 （完）

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