人工智能股票面臨動量逆轉考驗。以下是導航方法

投資者應該知道：受人工智能影響的軟件和平臺股票存在不同程度的動量逆轉風險。在某些情況下，估值相對於增長而言已經捉襟見肘，迫使投資者仔細尋找最有可能具有彈性的公司。以下是一些需要考慮的工具。

動量逆轉風險描述了當股價上漲更多地是由情緒而非基本面推動時，股票容易出現大幅回調的脆弱性。在這些情況下，預期可能會重置，通常是由於增長放緩、敍事降温或定位轉變。當這種情況發生時，估值相對於增長率過高的股票往往會更劇烈地修正。

儘管整體股市持續走高，但部分股票近期漲幅已大幅放緩。例如，最近IPO的Cerebras Systems（CBRS）自首日交易令人印象深刻以來，就經歷了波動性的波動。在其他地方，Fastly（FSLY）是今年早些時候上漲后最近放緩的股票的一個例子。

投資者經常關注的四個因素預示着更高的逆轉脆弱性：高的預期價格與收益增長率、疲軟或負的盈利能力、收入放緩或下降以及賣方分析師和獨立作者之間的分歧。當這些因素一致時，股票的近期表現變得更多地取決於情緒而不是盈利能力。

投資者還可以使用Seeking Alpha的量化評級來跟蹤單個股票的勢頭。該系統根據股票在量化指標（如動量、盈利能力和估值）上的相對錶現對股票進行評級。最近，動量排名兩側的股票基本上獲得了量化系統的持有評級。這可能表明該行業內正在發展重大的交叉潮流，使選股過程變得複雜。

下面的篩選器捕捉了人工智能和機器學習主題中分類的股票，按一個月價格回報率從低到高進行排名。這暴露了最近價格疲軟可能反映人工智能領域勢頭惡化的名稱。

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Recent IPO Cerebras Systems (CBRS) leapt on its first day of trading but has seen volatility since. After slumping about 25% following its opening day close, the stock bounced back on Tuesday, rising about 12%.

Meanwhile, ZoomInfo Technologies (GTM), Xanadu Quantum Technologies (XNDU), and Fastly (FSLY) have all dropped more than 30% in the past month. Elsewhere, NIQ Global Intelligence (NIQ), Endava (DAVA), Blackbaud (BLKB), CareCloud (CCLD), and Klaviyo (KVYO) have all fallen at least 20%, while CarGurus (CARG) has dropped about 19%.

To take a broader view, the screener below represents AI and machine learning stocks with market caps of at least $10 billion. They are then sorted by their momentum grade from Seeking Alpha's Quant Ratings. This gives a good glimpse of stocks in the sector that have kept up their momentum lately. (You can see the full screener here.)

Large-cap AI and machine learning stocks sorted by their Quant Rating momentum grade (Seeking Alpha)

The top five on the list all have A+ grades for momentum: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Arm Holdings (ARM), Dell Technologies (DELL), DigitalOcean (DOCN), and Nebius (NBIS). Meanwhile, Astera Labs (ALAB), Applied Digital (APLD), Alphabet (GOOGL)(GOOG), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), and IREN Limited (IREN) all have grades of A.

Still, even with stellar momentum lately, most of the stocks on the list have Hold ratings from the SA Quant system. This points to other concerns that could become headwinds in the future. The exceptions are AMD and NBIS, which both have Strong Buy ratings.

On the other side of the spectrum, the screener below takes the same group of stocks and ranks them with the worst momentum ratings on top.

Large-cap AI stocks with the worst Quant Rating momentum grades (Seeking Alpha)

Cognizant Technology（CTSH）、HubSpot（HUBS）和Zscaler（ZZ）位居榜首，勢頭均為D級。埃森哲（ACN）、Axon Enterprise（AX ON）、印孚瑟斯（INFY）、SAP（SAP）、騰訊（TCEHY）、Adobe（ADBE）和歐特克（ADSK）位列大盤人工智能和機器學習股中最差動量評級前10名。

與動量最高的股票一樣，大多數動量較弱的股票目前也在整體量化評級中獲得了持有評級。此列表中唯一的例外是Infosys（INFY），系統將其視為Sell。