Constellation Energy (
NASDAQ:CEG), already the biggest U.S. nuclear plant operator, also will become the largest independent power provider in the U.S. after
agreeing to buy privately-held natural gas and geothermal company Calpine, sending its shares closing +25.1% to an all-time high of $310.
Constellation (
NASDAQ:CEG) said the acquisition could add $2B/year to its free cash flow, and together the companies would have nearly 60 GW of capacity from zero- and low-emission sources, including nuclear, natural gas and geothermal.
Although Constellation (
CEG) will issue 50M new shares as part of the deal, the market is cheering because the acquisition is expected to provide immediate earnings per share accretion of more than 20% in 2026 and at least $2/share in future years.
The attractive purchase price is a key factor behind the expected earnings accretion, analysts say: With a net purchase price of $26.6B - which includes Calpine's net debt, the expected cash generated by Calpine between the deal signing and the expected closing date, and the value of tax attributes at Calpine - Constellation (
CEG) is paying less than 8x Calpine's expected 2026 EBITDA, analysts said.
From a strategic view, the addition of Calpine provides Constellation (
CEG) with significantly more exposure to the Texas and California markets, which figure to be very active in the expansion of data centers, while also complementing its current core markets in the Midwest and East coast.
While the deal adds fossil fuel exposure, it also comes with a sizeable clean energy portfolio, and the combined company will still have a generation footprint that is 58% zero carbon, according to a report from S&P Global.
Even before Friday’s run-up, Constellation's (
CEG) enterprise value as a multiple of 2026 EBITDA looked frothy, but since there are only four public power generators with exposure to the AI-demand theme - joining Vistra (
VST), Talen Energy (
TLN) and NRG Energy (
NRG) - the deal was the right one to send an already high-powered stock like Constellation surging.
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More on Constellation Energy
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