SentinelOne在CrowdStrike机会下在第三季度喜忧参半后暴跌，分析师基本上持乐观态度

SentinelOne's (NYSE:S) stock fell 14% premarket on Thursday after mixed third quarter results and a raised fiscal 2025 outlook, while analysts' reactions were between neutral and largely positive.

KeyBanc Capital Markets kept its Sector Weight rating on the shares, noting that it was a modest fiscal third quarter beat and there was "not as much of a bump as may have been anticipated."

Analysts led by Eric Heath said they reiterated their Sector Weight rating following a modest $3M annualized recurring revenue, or ARR, beat and slight fiscal fourth quarter revenue guidance above estimates.

The analysts added that while they did not pick up instances of SentinelOne displacements of CrowdStrike, they believe investors anticipated a more measurable benefit. SentinelOne's management did cite a handful of CrowdStrike displacements in the quarter, including a Fortune 50 and numerous Federal and local agencies, and a record number of wins against CrowdStrike in the third quarter.

From here, the analysts expect investor debates to focus on if the CrowdStrike outage structurally changed the competitive landscape in endpoint, the materiality of the Lenovo partnership, and whether SentinelOne can meaningfully expand into adjacencies (Security information and event management, or SIEM, cloud-native application protection platform, or CNAPP, Identity, GenAI), the analysts noted.

Heath and his team added that they are encouraged by the progress expanding the platform, potential tailwinds from the CrowdStrike outage, and the Lenovo partnership, but they retain caution on the degree of CrowdStrike displacement opportunity due to the modest upside this quarter and on SentinelOne's ability to deliver continued strong growth alongside meaningful margin improvement amid a still highly competitive endpoint market.

JMP Securities maintained its Market Outperform rating and $33 price target on SentinelOne.

Analyst Trevor Walsh and his team said that regarding the aftermath of the IT outage with SentinelOne's 'closest competitor' CrowdStrike (CRWD), the company's management's messaging on the opportunity to capitalize seemed to take a more moderated stance.

The analysts added that comments from CEO Tomer Weingarten such as "the July 19th outage is just another factor [in our success]" and a focus on new "conversations" appeared less aggressive than arguments made during the fiscal second quarter earnings call and at company's OneCon event in October. Maybe this was due, in part, to the respectable (but not record shattering) net new ARR performance in the quarter, which, based on the stock reaction aftermarket post results, suggests investors were perhaps hoping for more upside around this metric, the analysts noted.

However, Weingarten did point to "a record number of customer wins against our closest competitor" in the third quarter of fiscal 2025. Based on discussions with the company's management, the analysts think the wins were largely organic in nature, meaning they were not necessarily 100% attributable to the July 19 outage.

The analysts also think there isn't any incremental urgency in customers who may be considering displacing CrowdStrike at this stage. This all leads to what the analysts perceive as a longer-term opportunity for the company, as "new conversations" and "interest" lead to incremental wins against a formidable opponent.

Loop Capital maintained its Buy rating and $30 price target on the stock.

Analyst Yun Kim said SentinelOne reported a solid fiscal third quarter, representing its sixth consecutive quarter of at least inline performance. It also reported its second consecutive positive non-GAAP EPS quarter. It was clear from the company's management's tone in the call and the callback that it is aware of the golden opportunity provided by the CrowdStrike incident and plans to take full advantage of it.

However, the analyst, noted that the tailwinds from the incident will not likely materialize meaningfully until the second half of next fiscal year, due to the typical sales cycle related to any large cybersecurity deal.

Meanwhile, the analyst expects the company to use its favorable competitive position to show solid sales execution, especially with new customer deals which are already in the pipeline. To that end, the solid third quarter reflects this improving sales execution.

Kim believes the company's significant improvement in its competitive positioning due to the CrowdStrike incident will likely lead to an improvement in its sales execution going forward. In addition, he expects at least some modest tailwind from the CrowdStrike incident to emerge starting next fiscal year. The analyst also believes the company's highly regarded technology assets could serve as a beachhead into the cybersecurity market for any potential suitor.

Morgan Stanley retained its Equal-weight rating and $29 price target on the SentinelOne's stock.

Analysts led Hamza Fodderwala said SentinelOne reported a mixed fiscal third quarter, with ARR beating consensus while EBIT missed. The company's management noted improving win rates and new product pipeline. The analysts added  that ARR estimates likely have upside, however, they remain on the sidelines given continued margin and pricing pressure into 2025.

Related stocks: CrowdStrike (CRWD), Cloudflare (NET), CyberArk Software (CYBR), Fortinet (FTNT), Okta (OKTA) and Tenable (TENB) were all largely flat premarket on Thursday.