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2022-05-12 18:29
There's been a major selloff in The Beachbody Company, Inc. (NYSE:BODY) shares in the week since it released its quarterly report, with the stock down 41% to US$1.03. Results overall weren't great; even though revenues of US$199m beat expectations by 10%, statutory losses ballooned to US$0.24 per share, substantially worse than the analysts had expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
View our latest analysis for Beachbody Company
NYSE:BODY Earnings and Revenue Growth May 12th 2022Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the seven analysts covering Beachbody Company, is for revenues of US$756.6m in 2022, which would reflect an uncomfortable 11% reduction in Beachbody Company's sales over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 41% to US$0.52. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$743.0m and US$0.43 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Beachbody Company even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a massive increase in per-share losses.
The consensus price target fell 20% to US$2.28per share, with the analysts clearly concerned by ballooning losses. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Beachbody Company at US$4.75 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$1.00. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Beachbody Company's past performance and to peers in the same industry. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that Beachbody Company's decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 14% to the end of 2022. This tops off a historical decline of 8.1% a year over the past year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.6% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Beachbody Company to suffer worse than the wider industry.
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Beachbody Company going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..
It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Beachbody Company that you need to take into consideration.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.