业绩：Trico BancShares收益超出预期，分析师现在有了新的预测

TriCo Bancshares (NASDAQ:TCBK) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.9% to US$37.55 in the week after its latest quarterly results. It looks to have been a decent result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$83m, statutory earnings beat expectations by a notable 34%, coming in at US$0.67 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on TriCo Bancshares after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for TriCo Bancshares

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from TriCo Bancshares' six analysts is for revenues of US$382.0m in 2022, which would reflect a solid 17% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 9.4% to US$3.38. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$380.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.32 in 2022. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$48.83, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic TriCo Bancshares analyst has a price target of US$52.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$44.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that TriCo Bancshares' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 23% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2022 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 8.4% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that TriCo Bancshares is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$48.83, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple TriCo Bancshares analysts - going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that TriCo Bancshares is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.