The $1 Trillion Holiday Season—US Shoppers Make History

For the first time in history, U.S. holiday spending is projected to surpass the $1 trillion milestone. 

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Total sales for November and December 2025 are on track to reach between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, representing a year-over-year increase of 3.7% to 4.2%, according to the National Retail Federation. 

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Nominal Growth Trap

While the headline figure is historic, economists warn that these gains are largely “nominal.”

The surge is driven mostly by inflation and tariff-related price hikes and less by an increase in the volume of goods sold. 

With retail price inflation hovering around 2-3% and new trade policies inducing higher costs for imported toys and electronics, many consumers are paying more for the same or fewer items.

K-Shaped Holiday

The season is characterized by a stark divide in consumer behavior:

• High-Income Resilience: Spending remains robust among affluent households, fueled by stock market gains and rising home equity.
• Lower-Income Squeeze: Budget-conscious shoppers are showing a “resilient caution.” Rising credit card dependency and the expansion of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services suggest that many are stretching their budgets to the limit.

Performance of the Retail Titans

Despite a record-breaking total, the 2025 season proves that while Americans are still willing to spend, they are doing so with surgical precision—favoring value-driven giants over the shrinking middle market.

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