KB Home概述了2026年51亿至61亿美元的收入目标，其中利润率重点和扩大的社区开放

Earnings Call Insights: KB Home (KBH) Q4 2025

Management View

• Jeffrey Mezger, Chairman & CEO, highlighted that "the total revenues of over $6.2 billion and nearly $430 million in net income, we produced a 10% increase in our book value per share." He noted the expansion of a $1.2 billion revolving credit facility and the return of more than $600 million to shareholders, including dividends and repurchases of 13% of outstanding shares at a price below book value. Mezger stated, "We produced total revenues of just under $1.7 billion and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.92" for the quarter and returned about $115 million in cash to shareholders.
• Mezger explained the company’s pricing approach, emphasizing transparent and affordable prices over heavy incentives, and described a disciplined fourth quarter sales stance to support better margins in Q1 2026.
• Rob McGibney, President & COO, reported a stable 18% cancellation rate and a net order absorption pace of 3 per month per community. He detailed operational improvements, including achieving company-wide build times of 120 days or better, with some divisions below 100 days. The company ended the quarter with 271 active communities, a 5% year-over-year increase, and plans to open 35–40 new communities in Q1 2026, targeting a high watermark for community count in Q2.
• McGibney also noted a shift toward built-to-order (BTO) homes, with the goal of raising the BTO mix from 57% in Q4 2025 to 70% or higher. Direct costs on homes started in the fourth quarter were about 4% lower sequentially and 6% lower year-over-year. The average cash down payment rose to 17% ($80,000), with average household income at $130,000 and a FICO score of 743 for buyers using KBHS Home Loans.
• Mezger outlined land strategy, stating the company owned or controlled roughly 65,000 lots at year-end and canceled contracts for about 3,500 lots in Q4. He said, "We are maintaining our land investments at a level that will support our current growth projections and invested $665 million in land acquisition and development in the fourth quarter."
• Mezger added, "We plan to continue our share repurchase program in fiscal 2026 with between $50 million and $100 million of repurchases planned for our first quarter."
• Robert Dillard, CFO & EVP, stated, "In the fourth quarter of 2025, we exceeded the midpoint of our guidance range with total revenues of $1.69 billion and housing revenues of $1.68 billion, a 15% decrease." He reported delivery of 3,619 homes, an average selling price of $466,000, and a housing gross profit margin of 17%. Adjusted net income was $126 million or $1.92 per diluted share.

Outlook

• Dillard provided guidance for Q1 2026 housing revenues of $1.05 billion–$1.15 billion, with deliveries between 2,300 and 2,500 homes and a housing gross profit margin of 15.4%–16%. For full-year 2026, guidance for housing revenues is $5.1 billion–$6.1 billion on 11,000–12,500 deliveries. Management expects margins to improve throughout the year, driven by a higher mix of BTO homes and positive operating leverage.
• Expected Q1 2026 SG&A ratio is between 12.2% and 12.8%, and the effective tax rate for Q1 is projected at 19%, rising to an average of 24%–26% for the year due to the end of certain energy credits.
• Mezger stated, "We expect to have greater visibility on both operating and gross margins as we get into the spring selling season and plan to provide our projections for these metrics when we report our 2026 first quarter results in March."

Financial Results

• Reported total revenues for Q4 2025 were $1.69 billion, with housing revenues at $1.68 billion. The average selling price was $466,000, and the company delivered 3,619 homes. Housing gross profit margin was 17%, with adjusted housing gross profit margin at 17.8%. Net income for the quarter was $102 million or $1.55 per diluted share, with adjusted net income at $126 million or $1.92 per diluted share.
• For the full year 2025, KB Home delivered 12,902 homes, generated $6.24 billion in total revenues, and reported diluted earnings per share of $6.15. The company increased book value per share by 10% to $61.75.
• Share repurchases in Q4 totaled $100 million (1.6 million shares), and the company ended the year with $900 million available under a new $1 billion repurchase authorization.

Q&A

• John Lovallo, UBS: Asked about increased conservatism in gross margin guidance and the impact of aged inventory. Mezger responded, "There is still some inventory that we have to clear as part of our transition to more built-to-order sales. And we have factored that in, in the guidance that we provided... It's a short-term thing, but it's something we have to power through."
• Stephen Kim, Evercore ISI: Inquired about spec and BTO strategy and community count. McGibney clarified the peak community count is expected in Q2 and that, "of the 1,700 homes in inventory right now, a little over 1,000 are at or near the finish stage."
• Alan Ratner, Zelman & Associates: Asked about pricing strategy and base price model. McGibney indicated, "Overall, it was a relatively stable quarter for us in terms of pricing... we've seen our mix shift trend more towards BTO."
• Rafe Jadrosich, BofA: Sought specifics on BTO mix and margin trajectory. McGibney expects the BTO ratio will remain in the 57%–60% range in Q1, aiming to exit the year at 70%.
• Michael Dahl, RBC: Queried about the ability to manage the BTO transition and margin guidance. Mezger emphasized the intent to hold a 4-per-month sales pace, prioritizing BTO sales over spec homes for margin clarity.
• Trevor Allinson, Wolfe Research: Asked whether higher 2026 ASPs are price or mix driven. Mezger clarified, "That is totally mixed. We have some very high-end communities... our mix shift is going to trigger higher ASP."
• Jade Rahmani, KBW: Asked about price competition and lot abandonment charges. McGibney noted minimal price-cutting by competitors in BTO, and Dillard described lot abandonments as part of a stringent procurement process.
• Richard Reid, Wells Fargo: Asked about incentives and delivery volume scenarios. McGibney said incentives were mainly mortgage concessions at about 1% of revenues and expect further decline in incentive usage.
• Andrew Azzi, JPMorgan: Sought color on traffic trends and cost assumptions. Mezger reported September as the strongest month, following seasonal patterns, and Dillard does not expect meaningful changes in construction or lot costs.

Sentiment Analysis

• Analysts’ tone was neutral to slightly cautious, with several questions probing margin pressure, the pace of BTO transition, and inventory management. Questions underscored uncertainty around spring selling season and margin recovery.
• Management’s sentiment in prepared remarks was confident, focusing on operational achievements and future opportunities. During Q&A, tone was more measured, often clarifying that margin headwinds are transitional and reiterating discipline and realism in guidance. Mezger noted, "It's just a guide. It's not conservative. It's not aggressive. It's just realistic."
• Compared to the previous quarter, both analysts and management displayed slightly more conservatism around margin and demand outlook.

Quarter-over-Quarter Comparison

• Guidance for 2026 now explicitly includes a revenue range ($5.1 billion–$6.1 billion) and delivery targets, whereas the prior quarter deferred detailed 2026 outlook, citing market volatility.
• The operational focus has shifted more aggressively toward BTO sales, aiming to raise the mix to 70% or higher, compared to 50%–57% discussed previously.
• Community count increased from 264 to 271, with more new community openings planned for Q1 2026.
• Gross margins and operating income margins have compressed, reflecting higher land costs, product mix, and the need to clear aged inventory, versus stronger margin performance in Q3.
• Share repurchases accelerated, with a new $1 billion authorization replacing the prior approach.
• Both management and analyst sentiment became more guarded, with greater emphasis on margin headwinds and market uncertainties.

Risks and Concerns

• Margin compression in Q1 2026 is expected due to fixed cost deleverage, aged inventory with higher build costs, and regional/product mix effects.
• The company faces continued affordability concerns and elevated mortgage rates, which "continue to constrain the pool of actionable buyers."
• Lower beginning backlog compared to prior years was acknowledged, though management believes faster build times and new community openings will offset this.
• Management cited ongoing review and cancellation of land deals that no longer meet underwriting criteria, reflecting a cautious approach to land investment.

Final Takeaway

KB Home management underscored a disciplined operational approach entering 2026, with a renewed focus on high-margin built-to-order homes and efficiency gains in build times. The company projects full-year housing revenues of $5.1 billion–$6.1 billion and expects to reach a higher BTO sales mix as new communities ramp up through the spring. Margin pressure in the near term is attributed to clearing aged inventory and fixed cost deleverage, but management remains confident that these challenges are transitional and that the business is positioned for improved profitability as the year progresses, supported by expanded community count and continued capital returns to shareholders.

Read the full Earnings Call Transcript