液化石油气运输基本面日益受到全球能源、石化流动与短期运费波动的推动

In this episode of Capital Link's Shipping Sector Webinar Series, we had Kristian Sorensen, CEO of BW LPG Ltd. (NYSE:BWLP) (OSLO: BWLPG), Theodore (Ted) Young, CFO & Treasurer of Dorian LPG Ltd. (NYSE:LPG), and Mads Peter Zacho, CEO of  Navigator Gas (NYSE:NVGS). The webinar, moderated by Chris Robertson, Vice President, LNG Infrastructure and Maritime Shipping at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., focused on the LPG carrier market.

To watch the full discussion, please visit the following link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfAFFsX4EFE

The panel highlighted that LPG shipping fundamentals are increasingly driven by global energy and petrochemical flows rather than short-term freight volatility. BW LPG is the largest owner-operator in the VLGC sector, specializing in vessels over 84,000 cubic meters. Dorian LPG, as Young noted, is solely active in the VLGC sector with 27 vessels. Both companies primarily serve the long-haul propane and butane trades, from the U.S. Gulf and the Middle East to Asia.

Navigator Gas operates in the handy and midsize segments and is the owner-operator of the world's largest fleet of handysize liquefied gas carriers. The company transports LPG, ammonia, and petrochemical gases such as ethylene and ethane, with a fleet of 57 semi- or fully-refrigerated vessels, 27 of which are ethylene-capable. Navigator Gas also holds a 50% ownership interest in an ethylene export marine terminal at Morgan's Point, Texas.

U.S. Production and Global Use

The panelists noted that LPG benefits from the persistently gassy nature of maturing shale basins such as the Permian. Even with flattening crude oil output, NGL production is forecast to grow by 25-32% by 2030. Beyond that, LPG is gaining traction as a marine fuel itself, with companies such as BW LPG adopting dual-fuel propulsion for their new vessels. The ongoing consolidation of naphtha-based petrochemical capacity in Europe, as Young said, is a positive, as replacement capacity in Asia is often more LPG-intensive, increasing ton-mile demand.

Capital Discipline

Sorensen and Young both highlighted dividends as their primary vehicle for returning value, with Young turning the spotlight toward Dorian's corporate finance experience, which revealed a stronger market response to dividends versus buybacks. "We’ve managed to strike a pretty good balance between debt reduction, fleet investment, and shareholder returns. We really saw no measurable impact on our total shareholder return when we did meaningful buybacks, yet we saw a massive increase when we actually started paying dividends."

Zacho highlighted Navigator Gas' recently improved return of capital policy, in which the quarterly cash dividend was increased to $0.07/share (from $0.05/share) and the net income payout percentage was increased to 30% (from 25%). Zacho also noted that the company has repurchased an additional $50 million of shares for three consecutive years, stating that this trend of additional ad hoc share repurchases will likely continue in 2026.

Fleet Supply, Regulation, and Environmental Transition

For VLGCs, Young acknowledged a 25% orderbook to fleet ratio but emphasized that strong demand growth and an aging global fleet provide balance. For Navigator Gas' segment, Zacho saw a benign orderbook of about 10%, with potential for negative fleet growth due to scrapping as more than 20% of the vessels exceed 20 years of age. Additionally, the impending ban on scrubber discharges is accelerating a shift that is already happening.

Sorensen said that BW LPG is "tilting our fleet composition more and more toward LPG dual fuels." To that, Zacho agreed: "We are building dual-fuel vessels. We haven’t considered scrubbers for a long time. It’s probably better if the refinery is there removing the sulfur rather than if we do it on each ship." In turn, Young added that the existing scrubber investments had vastly exceeded internal calculations but saw the future in alternative fuels, rendering scrubbers a fading solution.

Disclosure: Capital Link is the investor relations advisor to Navigator Gas (NVGS) and works with Dorian LPG (LPG). This content is for informational purposes only and not intended to be investing advice. The article includes statements made by company management during the sector webinar.

Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga's reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.