Bitcoin's Decline Is Bear Market Evidence, Not A Dip: 10x Research

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is not resting within a bull market, but is firmly in a bear market, according to 10x Research head Marcus Thielen.

What Happened: Speaking on a recent Coin Bureau podcast with co-founder and analyst Nic Puckrin, Thielen said the real question isn't whether Bitcoin is bearish, but how long the downturn will last.

Despite charts showing rising global liquidity and expectations around central bank rate cuts, Thielen called the bullish narrative misleading.

Liquidity on paper does not equal capital flowing into Bitcoin.

Unlike equities, BTC does not rally optimism alone, it requires sustained, real demand.

He pointed out that crypto-native inflows have collapsed: stablecoin and ETF flows fell sharply from roughly $100 billion to $60 billion during the summer and to just $4 billion recently.

Without meaningful inflows, Bitcoin lacks the fuel to push higher.

Retail Is Missing — And That Matters

Retail investors, historically the lifeblood of major crypto rallies, are largely absent.

In South Korea, a traditional hotspot for speculative trading, spot volumes remain muted.

Funding rates are flat. There's no leverage frenzy, no speculative excess.

Instead, this cycle has been dominated by institutions, and Thielen believes they misplayed it.

While Bitcoin ETFs attracted tens of billions of dollars, much of that capital entered at higher prices.

As BTC drifted lower, institutions found themselves underwater.

Many weren't even positioned for upside, instead selling covered calls to harvest yield, effectively capping price appreciation and suppressing volatility.

At the same time, long-term holders quietly distributed supply.

ETF inflows initially absorbed this selling, keeping prices stable.

But after a hawkish Fed meeting in October, that balance broke.

ETFs turned into net sellers, leaving Bitcoin without a strong buyer base, triggering the slide from highs and the weak recovery since.

Also Read: Bitcoin Stumbles Around $87,000 As Ethereum, XRP, Dogecoin Drop 5%

What's Next: Thielen warned that U.S. midterm elections present another risk.

Historically, Bitcoin has struggled during midterm years, often peaking beforehand and entering prolonged drawdowns afterward, a pattern he believes is repeating.

He sees strong technical support near $70,000, which could limit downside.

Bitcoin dominance is likely to keep rising, with only a few exceptions like BNB, while most altcoins are expected to underperform.

Thielen dismissed Solana hype and emphasized that Bitcoin's 21-week moving average remains his most reliable indicator.

In conclusion, he said this cycle belonged to institutions—but institutions alone couldn't ignite a true bull market.

For that, crypto needs something it currently lacks: a new narrative, new builders, and a fresh wave of retail believers willing to take risk and dream again.

Read Next:

• Crypto Can No Longer Be Ignored Or Dismissed, 5%–10% Portfolio Allocation Is Warranted, Hashdex Says

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