华尔街看到Robinhood赢得预测市场竞赛，因为老用户蜂拥而回

Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ:HOOD) is signaling a tightly disciplined financial strategy and a deeper push into prediction markets, tokenization and social trading as its new CFO begins to shape the company's next phase of growth.

• Robinhood Markets stock is among today's weakest performers. Why is HOOD stock dropping?

Analyst Take

Needham analyst John Todaro reiterated Robinhood Markets with a Buy and a $145 price forecast.

Todaro met with Robinhood's new CFO, Shiv Verma, along with IR executives Chris Koegel, Jack Riehemann and Matt Greco during a sell-side luncheon in New York on December 4, 2025.

Also Read: Robinhood Just Made Crypto Simpler — And Way More Powerful

The analyst came away with the view that Verma plans to operate with a style similar to former CFO Jason Warnick, particularly in budgeting discipline, financial planning and how he tracks performance across the business.

Verma told investors he intends to prioritize growing earnings per share and free cash flow per share as his two core financial goals.

According to Todaro, Robinhood signaled that it will keep headcount lean and use AI tools aggressively to support product expansion without adding large teams.

Management framed its hiring philosophy as "strategic and limited," supported by internal tooling that increases productivity, the analyst noted.

Investor interest in the company has risen sharply as well, he told.

Total inbound interest has doubled compared to earlier this year, while engagement from Asian firms is up fivefold and European firms have tripled, Todaro noted.

Long-only investors represent about half of all inquiries to the IR team, as per the analyst.

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets dominated the discussion at the luncheon, and Robinhood repeatedly emphasized its comfort with increased regulatory scrutiny, he told.

Management argued that tighter rules will ultimately strengthen its moat in the category, Todaro noted.

Executives expect either Congress or the Supreme Court to issue formal guidance eventually, the analyst told.

For now, the product remains unavailable in Nevada and Maryland, and Robinhood has requested an injunction in Connecticut to clear a path for operations there, he said.

Most pushback is coming from state regulators, and nearly all of it centers on sports-related contracts, Todaro noted.

Sports contracts still drive the bulk of trading volumes, but the platform has historically seen heavy activity around major political and macroeconomic events, including U.S. presidential elections and Federal Reserve policy decisions, the analyst noted.

The customer base spans a broad range of cohorts, with notable overlap among users who trade crypto, equities, options and event contracts, he told.

Todaro noted that a meaningful minority of users represent reactivated accounts—people who returned to the platform specifically to trade event markets.

The new joint venture supporting prediction markets gives Robinhood greater control over listings, pricing and long-term liquidity partnerships, the analyst noted.

Management said it expects to become more vertically integrated across the category and, over time, less dependent on external partners, he noted.

Executives argued that the long-term winners in prediction markets will be platforms with the strongest liquidity and distribution, while event listings and exchange execution will eventually become commoditized, Todaro told.

Tokenization and broader crypto initiatives remain firmly in focus for Robinhood despite the downturn in digital asset prices, the analyst noted.

Management expects Bitstamp's institution-oriented customer base to generate more stable volumes even in a soft market, while retail activity on Robinhood's own crypto platform may pull back, he told.

Executives highlighted growing customer demand for 24/7 trading—an advantage enabled by tokenization—and said they plan to launch more tokenized equities before expanding into additional asset classes, Todaro told.

HOOD Price Action: Robinhood Markets shares were down 3.73% at $131.97 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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