高长期利率，不确定的美联储，更多的波动进入年底-策略师

MetLife Investment Management chief market strategist Drew Matus expects more uncertainty and volatility in the markets as the year concludes, despite December’s recovery.

“I think we’re heading into a period where there’s going to be more uncertainty and more volatility, and we would look for prices to come down from here,” Matus said in an interview with CNBC.

He also anticipates 10-year Treasury yields (US10Y) to remain elevated at around 4.25%, regardless of Federal Reserve actions.

He added that the economy will need to contend with “reasonably high longer-term rates, uncertain Fed, more volatility, as we head into year-end.”

Economic clarity remains elusive due to delayed government data, further complicating market predictions, Matus said. This data gap contributes to the “lot of uncertainty about what next year will bring.”

In addition, the impact of tariffs on consumer prices presents a complex picture. Using flat-screen TVs as an example, he explained, “How would you ever know if the tariff price was 10% higher because of tariffs, but the overall price of the TV still dropped by 40% year-over-year?” This pricing dynamic may mask inflation effects in certain product categories.

Consumer perception of inflation continues to be heavily influenced by frequently purchased items with clear price references.

“A lot of times inflation expectations are set off of food and energy, like gasoline prices,” Matus said.

He pointed out that relatively stable food prices and lower gasoline costs have somewhat offset inflation pressures, even as consumers “begin to worry about job losses and income gains.”