摩根大通的Mosaic评级被下调; Nutrien的评级维持不变

J.P. Morgan analyst Jeffrey Zekauskas on Tuesday downgraded Mosaic Company (MOS) to Neutral from Overweight, citing weaker phosphate prices, rising input costs and ongoing operational challenges. The firm maintained an Overweight rating on Nutrien (NTR), calling it leaner and better positioned for consistent free cash flow growth.

Zekauskas wrote that phosphate demand remains fragile, with prices still elevated by historical standards and farmers facing tighter balance sheets. Mosaic’s (MOS) production issues, cost pressures and higher sulfur and ammonia prices are likely to weigh on profitability in 2026, the Nov. 11 report said. J.P. Morgan cut its 2026 adjusted earnings estimate for Mosaic (MOS) by nearly 28%, to $2.10 a share, reflecting reduced expectations for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization and greater uncertainty.

By contrast, Nutrien (NTR) has been “taking sensible steps to improve its financial returns,” including lowering selling, general and administrative expenses by 5% year-to-date, cutting capital costs and divesting non-core assets expected to yield about $900 million in proceeds. The company is also exploring “strategic options” for its phosphate operations, the note said.

Nutrien (NTR) recently shut down its Trinidad nitrogen operations because of high port fees and limited natural gas supply, a move Zekauskas described as prudent given the segment’s small contribution to free cash flow. He expects Nutrien’s (NTR) free cash flow yield to reach 9% to 9.5% in 2025 and 2026, with the shares trading at 6.4 times ebitda and carrying less than two times leverage, levels he deems undervalued.

J.P. Morgan’s latest model assumes global potash prices rising by $30 to $40 a ton year over year in 2025, with Nutrien (NTR) supplying about 19% of global potash demand and Mosaic (MOS) around 12%.

The report also highlights Mosaic’s (MOS) review of “strategic alternatives” for its phosphate business, potentially including partnerships or a sale, with a decision expected in 2026.