分析师：如果聊天机器人复制其参与策略，Pinterest的增长可能会停滞

Pinterest Inc. (NYSE:PINS) reported mixed third-quarter results, with revenue outperforming expectations while earnings fell short of consensus estimates, signaling underlying challenges in the advertising landscape.

The company achieved revenue of $1.0 billion, marking a 16.8% year-over-year increase, hitting the high end of its guidance and aligning with expectations.

Simultaneously, Adjusted EBITDA reached $306 million with a 29.2% margin, surpassing consensus by 4% and representing a 170-basis-point margin expansion.

Also Read: What Makes Pinterest’s New Ad Tools So Special?

For the fourth quarter, Pinterest is projecting revenue growth of 13.8% to 15.9% year over year, or $1.31 billion to $1.34 billion, but the 14.9% midpoint trails Street expectations by approximately 100 basis points.

The company anticipates Adjusted EBITDA to range between $533 million and $558 million, compared with the prior estimate of $546 million.

Analyst Caution on Ad Spend and Tariffs

Following the cautious revenue outlook, Wedbush Securities analysts, led by Scott Devitt, lowered their 12-month price forecast on Pinterest to $34 from $44 while maintaining an Outperform rating.

Wedbush highlighted pockets of moderating ad spend in UCAN, particularly among large U.S. retailers affected by tariff pressures and softer spending from Asia-based e-commerce advertisers.

While sequential improvement from the second quarter was noted, the firm stated that fourth-quarter guidance reflects greater uncertainty, especially regarding potential tariff headwinds in home furnishings.

Wedbush consequently trimmed its growth forecasts, now projecting a three-year revenue Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 14.5%, down from 15.1%, putting it at the lower end of Pinterest's 2023 investor-day framework. Despite this revision, analysts said Pinterest remains positioned to meet its intermediate-term targets.

The report emphasized that Pinterest shares trade below 10 times Wedbush's 2027 adjusted EBITDA estimate, which the firm views as attractive for a platform capable of growing profits at roughly a 20% CAGR over the next three years.

Long-Term AI Risk Spurs Downgrade

In a separate analysis, Rosenblatt analyst Barton Crockett noted that while the company's third-quarter performance was largely in line and fourth-quarter EBITDA guidance met expectations, revenue guidance came in roughly 1% below consensus, implying a modest 100 bps deceleration in year-over-year growth to 16% at the high end, versus 17% in 3Q25.

Rosenblatt's concern centers less on near-term financials and more on long-term structural risks, warning that the rapid advancement of chatbot and generative AI capabilities could begin to overlap with Pinterest's core use case, posing a potential existential and growth challenge.

Reflecting this caution, the firm downgraded Pinterest to Neutral and cut its price forecast by $19 to $30, based on a 12x 2026E EV/EBITDA multiple.

Analysts also flagged rising risks from AI-driven agentic commerce competitors, which may offset easing year-over-year comparisons in consumer packaged goods.

Rosenblatt continues to model 2025-2027 EBITDA CAGR of around 20%, but cautioned that sustaining such growth could become difficult if AI-powered chatbots evolve into alternative platforms for discovery, engagement, and advertising monetization areas where Pinterest currently differentiates itself.

The analyst noted that Pinterest said new tariffs and weaker retail ad spending are pressuring its core U.S. and Canada market, which accounts for about 75% of sales, though stronger gains in Europe and Rest of World, driven by emerging verticals like entertainment, telecom, and financial services, offer some offset.

Price Action: PINS shares were trading lower by 22.08% to $25.65 at last check Wednesday.

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