由于需求强劲，积压量达到2510亿美元，RTX将2025年调整后的每股收益展望上调至6.10 - 6.20美元

Earnings Call Insights: RTX Corporation (RTX) Q3 2025

Management View

• Christopher Calio, Chairman & CEO, stated that "We delivered a very strong quarter of results in Q3, which reflects our intense focus on execution, the broad utilization of our core operating system and the durable demand for our products." He emphasized 13% organic sales growth year-over-year, double-digit growth across commercial OE, aftermarket, and defense, and a robust $4 billion in free cash flow for the quarter.
• Calio highlighted continued demand in commercial aerospace, noting "passenger air travel has remained resilient with global RPKs on track for approximately 5% growth this year." He reported a 6% growth in large commercial engine deliveries at Pratt and over $100 billion of out-of-warranty content at Collins, with low aircraft retirements and strong aftermarket growth.
• On the defense side, Calio said, "we continue to be exceptionally well positioned to meet the growing needs of our U.S. and international customers," and reported a book-to-bill of 1.63 and a record backlog of $251 billion, with $37 billion in new awards in Q3—$23 billion defense and $14 billion commercial.
• Calio noted strategic investments, including "over $600 million this year in expansion projects" and specific capacity expansions such as Raytheon’s $300 million investment to support growing demand.
• Calio discussed advancements in technology, such as Pratt Canada’s selection by the EU’s Clean Aviation program and Collins nearing certification of its new braking system for the A321XLR.
• Neil Mitchill, Executive VP & CFO, stated, "In the third quarter, adjusted sales of $22.5 billion were up 12% on an adjusted basis and 13% organically... adjusted segment operating profit of $2.8 billion was up 19%... Adjusted earnings per share of $1.70 was up 17% from the prior year, driven primarily by segment operating profit growth." He also noted a $0.12 EPS benefit from tax items.

Outlook

• Mitchill announced, "we are raising our full year adjusted sales outlook to a range of $86.5 billion to $87 billion, up from our prior range of $84.75 billion to $85.5 billion. This now translates to between 8% and 9% organic sales growth for the year, up from our prior range of 6% to 7%."
• Mitchill further stated, "we are increasing adjusted earnings per share $0.30 on the low end of our range and $0.25 on the high end... we now see adjusted EPS at a new range of between $6.10 and $6.20 for the full year, up from our prior range of $5.80 to $5.95."
• He reiterated, "On free cash flow, we are on track to achieve our outlook of between $7 billion and $7.5 billion for the year."
• By segment, RTX expects commercial aftermarket sales to grow mid-teens year-over-year (up from low teens), commercial OE to grow around 10% (up from high single digits), and defense to grow mid-single digits.

Financial Results

• Adjusted sales were reported at $22.5 billion, up 12% adjusted and 13% organically. Adjusted segment operating profit reached $2.8 billion, up 19% year-over-year. Adjusted EPS was $1.70, up 17% from the prior year. GAAP EPS from continuing operations was $1.41, including $0.29 of acquisition accounting adjustments.
• Free cash flow for the quarter was $4 billion, driven by working capital improvements and advance payments. The company returned over $900 million to shareowners via dividends and paid down $2.9 billion of debt. The actuation business sale was completed, and Collins’ Simmonds Precision Products was sold for $765 million.
• Collins sales were $7.6 billion (up 8% adjusted, 11% organically). Pratt & Whitney sales were $8.4 billion (up 16%), and Raytheon sales were $7 billion (up 10%). Notable bookings include $8 billion of munitions at Raytheon and significant international orders.

Q&A

• Robert Stallard, Vertical Research: Asked about the raised aerospace OEM guidance and confidence in LEAP engine deliveries to Airbus. Mitchill explained strong aftermarket and OE delivery strength, with most aftermarket growth at Pratt. Calio indicated working closely with Airbus: "We're going to continue to work very closely with Airbus to make sure that they have what they need down the stretch of the year, while also continuing to balance the allocation of material."
• Myles Walton, Wolfe Research: Sought clarification on GTF MRO output and Raytheon segment growth limitations. Calio described strong progress in MRO output, targeting 30% growth for the year, with supply chain health as a key limiter for Raytheon’s growth. Mitchill added that land and air defense systems are driving above-average growth at Raytheon.
• Peter Arment, Baird: Inquired on Raytheon margin expansion amid international mix. Calio emphasized productivity and cost reduction, noting "the team continues to focus heavily on our core operating system." Mitchill cited "about $75 million or so of productivity improvement... on top of $160 million last year."
• Scott Deuschle, Deutsche Bank: Queried Pratt commercial OE revenue and spare engine mix. Mitchill stated no major difference in mix and expects typical aftermarket performance in Q4.
• Kristine Liwag, Morgan Stanley: Asked about Boeing 737 MAX/787 run rates and Collins margins. Calio said Collins is aligned with Boeing’s production rates and prepared for volume ramp, with supply chain health remaining essential. Mitchill noted inventory is now synchronized with Boeing and sees better absorption contributing to Collins margin expansion.
• Gautam Khanna, TD Cowen: Sought update on GTF compensation payments. Mitchill said, "financial outlook remains consistent... between $1.1 billion and $1.3 billion for the year," with no changes expected.
• Ron Epstein, BofA: Asked about Collins margins and tariffs. Mitchill attributed margin pressure to tariffs, identifying "about $90 million of headwind from year-over-year tariffs." Mitigation strategies are being pursued.
• Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies: Asked about Pratt commercial OE revenue guidance and negative engine margin headwind. Mitchill clarified the revenue uptick is not GTF advantage related and negative engine margin outlook remains unchanged at $150 million to $200 million in 2025.
• Seth Seifman, JPMorgan: Asked about GTF deliveries growth and capital deployment. Mitchill now expects high single-digit GTF growth rate and continued debt paydown, with dividend growth prioritized and CapEx/R&D investments ongoing.
• Scott Mikus, Melius: Asked about V2500 shop visit visibility. Calio described robust demand, referencing a relatively young fleet and substantial aftermarket runway.
• Doug Harned, Bernstein: Sought Raytheon margin outlook. Calio highlighted international backlog growth and supply chain health as crucial for future margin upside.
• Ken Herbert, RBC: Inquired about Collins aftermarket and catalog pricing. Calio and Mitchill pointed to strong double-digit growth across aftermarket channels and aggressive pricing due to demand and tariffs.
• Gavin Parsons, UBS: Asked about 2026 free cash flow conversion and 2025 guide reiteration. Mitchill said, "very comfortable with that for the full year," and baseline free cash flow is in the $8 billion to $8.5 billion range for 2026, with powder metal payments expected to decrease.

Sentiment Analysis

• Analysts pressed on sustainability of aftermarket growth, margin expansion, and supply chain limitations, indicating a neutral to slightly positive tone overall, with recurring focus on guidance upgrades and operational execution.
• Management maintained a confident and upbeat tone in both prepared remarks and Q&A, offering detailed explanations and expressing confidence in achieving upgraded targets. Statements such as "we are confident..." and "feel good about the demand" reflected this. Compared to the previous quarter, the sentiment was more assertive, especially regarding improved guidance and backlog.
• The tone among analysts was slightly more optimistic than the prior quarter, shifting from concern over tariffs and cash flow headwinds to a focus on upside from aftermarket and defense demand.

Quarter-over-Quarter Comparison

• The company raised its full year adjusted sales and EPS outlook for 2025, compared to Q2. Adjusted sales guidance increased from $84.75–$85.5 billion to $86.5–$87 billion, and adjusted EPS guidance rose from $5.80–$5.95 to $6.10–$6.20.
• Organic sales growth guidance moved higher (now 8–9% vs. prior 6–7%).
• Commercial aftermarket sales growth expectation was raised to mid-teens (from low teens), and commercial OE to around 10% (from high single digits).
• Backlog grew from $236 billion to $251 billion, with book-to-bill remaining strong.
• Sentiment from management shifted to higher confidence, with more emphasis on execution and capacity expansion. Analysts’ focus shifted from uncertainty around tariffs and supply chain to questions about sustaining growth and margin upside.
• Strategic investments and productivity improvements received greater focus in the current quarter.

Risks and Concerns

• Management acknowledged ongoing supply chain constraints, particularly for Raytheon’s defense programs and critical components such as microelectronics and rocket motors.
• Tariffs remain a significant headwind, with $90 million in quarterly impact at Collins and Pratt. Management is pursuing mitigation strategies through USMCA qualification, bonds, and pricing.
• The ability to ramp MRO output and support fleet demand, particularly balancing material allocation between installs, spares, and aftermarket, remains a challenge.
• Analyst questions reflected concerns about margins, negative engine margin headwinds at Pratt, and the timing of compensation payments for GTF-related issues.

Final Takeaway

RTX Corporation delivered a strong Q3 2025 with record backlog and robust growth across all segments, prompting increased full-year adjusted sales and EPS guidance. Management emphasized disciplined execution, ongoing investment in capacity and technology, and proactive supply chain management to meet elevated demand in both commercial aerospace and defense. Despite tariff headwinds and operational complexities, RTX remains focused on driving productivity and margin expansion, with confidence in sustaining top-line growth and free cash flow generation into 2026 and beyond.

Read the full Earnings Call Transcript