Oppenheimer’s semiconductors for the long-term: NVDA, LRCX, MU and more

The tech sector (XLK) has broken through its year-long resistance compared to the S&P 500 (SP500), with semiconductors (NASDAQ:SOXX), (SMH) as the top group within the sector, Oppenheimer’s technical analysts said.

Semiconductors have reversed higher and are positioned to lead the tech stocks even vs. the sector, according to Ari H. Wald, chief market technician at Oppenheimer, who added that this breakout vs. the market is expected to remain. “Although overbought, a four-year breakout in trend is indicative of meaningful long-term strength.”

Oppenheimer analysts have also been bullish towards cap-weighted semis since May, and have upgraded the subsector to “overweight” in August after the breakout in the equal-weighted group.

“With a daily and weekly RSI reading now both above 75, the industry has become tactically overbought,” Wald said. “From our viewpoint, the recent four-year breakout in trend, both absolute and relative, marks meaningful strength coming into the industry, as well as a resumption of its year-2019 breakout above its year-2000 peak.”

Analysts see three groups with leading stocks:

• Mega-caps: Broadcom (AVGO), Nvidia (NVDA), lagged in September and are the most tactical
• Stocks that are still below their 2024 peak after incremental September: Applied Materials (AMAT), Camtek (CAMT).
• Near-term overbought stocks after long-term breakouts vs. the S&P 500: KLA Corp. (KLAC), Lam Research (LRCX), Micron Technology (MU), Nova (NVMI), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM).