摩根士丹利因估值风险下调UWM Holdings评级

Residential mortgage lender UWM Holdings (NYSE:UWMC) was downgraded at Morgan Stanley on some near-term valuation risk.

"Market excitement over rate cuts over the past few months have driven a sharp rerating of the mortgage originators, with shares of UWMC up 55% since July-end," said analyst Jeffrey Adelson.

"Our view for mortgage originations in 2026 already incorporates a low 6% mortgage rate, which can certainly drive a mini boom in refi originations (we forecast refi up ~30%/~50% in 2025/26)," said the analyst in a research note.

"Despite this improved outlook, we downgrade UWMC to Equal-weight (from Overweight) as we think most of this is now in the price," said the note.

"We need confidence that mortgage rates can sustain a move below 6% for the next leg of the trade to work. Indeed, post Fed cuts longer-term rates have already reversed 3Q's trend of improvement (retracing 15-20bps over the past ~2 weeks), with the 30Y mortgage rate back to ~6.35%," said Adelson.

Price target on the stock was raised to $6.50 from $4.50.

The rating aligns with the average sell-side analysts and Seeking Alpha Quant rating of Hold. SA authors grade the stock as Strong Buy.