高盛下调卡姆登、美国住宅4租金评级，住宅房地产投资信托基金在2025 - 26年面临严峻的形势

Goldman Sachs analyst Julien Blouin has become cautious on the residential REIT sector, flagging a challenging setup for the second half of 2025 and into 2026. He pointed to weaker job growth, slowing migration trends in Sunbelt (south and southwest U.S.) markets, and rising supply forecasts as key headwinds that continue to cap pricing power despite steady absorption levels.

Downgrades

Camden Property Trust (NYSE:CPT) was downgraded to Sell with a $106 price forecast, cut from $118, based on a 15.2x forward FFO multiple. The firm cited persistent vacancy and ongoing supply revisions in Sunbelt markets as major hurdles. Goldman now expects 2026 rent growth of just +1.4%, far below management’s guidance of more than 4%, suggesting limited upside for the stock.

CPT is showing downward pressure. Get the latest updates here.

American Homes 4 Rent (NYSE:AMH) was lowered to Neutral from Buy, with a price forecast of $37, down from $43. Analysts warned that a weaker home-selling environment is creating “shadow supply,” as unsold homes are converted into rentals. Rising single-family rental listings in AMH’s markets are expected to weigh on rent growth through 2026.

Buy, But …

Invitation Homes Inc (NYSE:INVH), by contrast, remains the only Buy-rated stock in the group, though Goldman trimmed its price forecast to $36 from $37. Despite moderating rent trends, analysts believe INVH’s scale and relative valuation keep it better positioned than peers in the single-family rental segment.

Neutral

Mid-America Apartments Communities Inc (NYSE:MAA) was maintained at Neutral with its price forecast cut to $148 from $163, based on a 16.3x forward FFO multiple. Updated rent growth models drove the reduction, though lower same-store expenses provided some offset.

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Equity Residential (NYSE:EQR) also stayed Neutral, with its price forecast reduced slightly to $70 from $72. Goldman cited softening trends in Washington, D.C., and Boston submarkets as the key headwind, with seasonal deterioration expected to pressure rent growth further in late 2025.

Essex Property Trust Inc (NYSE:ESS) remains rated Neutral, with its price forecast nudged up to $291 from $288, based on a 17.4x forward FFO multiple. While Goldman projects sector-leading rent growth in 2026–’27 on the back of limited West Coast supply, near-term challenges in Los Angeles submarkets and higher expense assumptions limit near-term optimism.

Sell

UDR Inc. (NYSE:UDR) remains rated Sell with a $37 price forecast, based on a 14.7x forward FFO multiple. Goldman cut its second-half of 2025 lease growth projections, citing sharper submarket pressures in Washington D.C. and Boston, where vacancies are rising and rent growth has slowed. While Orange County, California, exposure provides some cushion, analysts said it is insufficient to offset headwinds, leaving UDR more exposed to downside risk.

Sector Headwinds

Overall, Blouin’s research suggests that while Sunbelt markets have absorbed record volumes in recent years, the benefit is being offset by persistent supply growth and decelerating migration.

Rent growth improvements many consultants expect for 2026 are likely overstated, with Goldman’s models pointing to subdued performance in key markets such as Houston, Dallas and Phoenix. Coastal markets face their own challenges, with Washington D.C., and Boston expected to weaken further, though San Francisco remains an outlier with stronger momentum.

The analyst concludes that the sector faces one of the weakest job growth environments outside of a recession, keeping demand from meaningfully outpacing supply. Until vacancy levels ease and supply revisions stabilize, pricing power will remain elusive.

Price Actions: CPT trading higher by 0.35% at $107.50, AMH up 0.52% at $33.52, ESS up 0.39% at $267.60, MAA up 0.72% at $140.40, INVH up 0.63% at $29.70, EQR up 0.42% at $65 and UDR up 0.78% at $37.59 at publication on Wednesday.

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