De Minimis Shock将成为UPS和FedEx的De Majoris挑战

United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE:UPS) and FedEx Corp. (NYSE:FDX) are bracing for fresh turbulence as the end of U.S. de minimis exemptions tightens trade flows, threatening parcel volumes and raising costs just as the critical peak shipping season approaches.

Bank of America Securities downgraded both carriers on Thursday, citing weakening demand, higher costs, and mounting uncertainty around the industry's most critical quarter.

Analyst Ken Hoexter cut UPS to Underperform from Neutral and lowered FedEx to Neutral from Buy, warning of what he described as a soft peak backdrop for 2025. He also trimmed earnings estimates and price forecasts for both firms.

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UPS Earnings and Price Forecast Cut

For UPS, Hoexter lowered his price forecast to $83 from $91, applying a 12.5x multiple to his 2026 EPS estimate. His revised projections now assume earnings of $1.30 for the third quarter of 2025, $6.50 for fiscal 2025, and $6.70 for fiscal 2026, reductions of 6%, 3%, and 4%, respectively.

The company has struggled to offset volume losses with cost savings, particularly as it pares back Amazon-related shipments, which still account for roughly 11% of revenue.

Adding to the strain, U.S.-China parcel flows, among UPS's most profitable lanes, fell nearly 35% year over year in May and June after China lost its de minimis access. Hoexter flagged tariffs, labor negotiations, and seasonal demand as ongoing risks.

FedEx Outlook Dims Despite Efficiency Drive

FedEx, despite its ongoing cost-cutting drive and plans to spin off its Freight division, also faces headwinds. Hoexter trimmed his price forecast to $240 from $245, based on a 13.5x multiple of his fiscal 2026 EPS outlook.

Earnings estimates were reduced by 7% for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, 6% for fiscal 2026, and 7% for fiscal 2027, now at $3.56, $17.75, and $20.45, respectively.

He also lowered his margin expectation for the Express unit to 6.9% from 7.3%. While FedEx's efficiency initiatives remain intact, the analyst cited inflationary pressures, weakening trade flows, and the impact of de minimis changes as key drags on performance.

De Minimis Policy Shift Adds Pressure

The broader sector outlook is dimming as well. The now-lapsed de minimis exemption had allowed millions of small parcels, many from China, to bypass duties and speed through customs.

With both carriers deriving more than 15% of revenue from international express shipments, the policy shift adds fresh pressure to an already soft macro environment. Hoexter noted that since the start of 2025, his EPS estimates for UPS have fallen by 26% to 33% and by 23% to 24% for FedEx.

Despite the challenges, Hoexter acknowledged potential upside if global demand stabilizes, tariffs are absorbed into pricing, or if cost cuts accelerate.

Still, he cautioned investors to brace for volatility, highlighting risks ranging from dividend concerns at UPS, the pullback in Amazon volumes, fuel volatility, labor unrest, and possible service disruptions at FedEx.

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