RBC Capital的TransDigm评级被下调，理由是增长放缓、并购有限

TransDigm Group (NYSE:TDG) on Monday was downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform by RBC Capital Markets. Analyst Ken Herbert said the aircraft parts supplier remains “one of the highest quality public A&D companies” but faces a period of slower growth and reduced upside potential.

Shares of TransDigm (NYSE:TDG) have fallen about 21% from a year-to-date high in late July.

M&A engine stalling

Herbert noted that large-scale acquisitions have historically been a key growth driver for TransDigm (TDG), but opportunities appear constrained in the near term. The company invested about $3.4 billion in acquisitions between fiscal 2022 and 2025, excluding Simmonds, yet RBC estimates only 3.5% of revenue growth over that period will come from M&A. That compares with roughly 15% contribution from deals during 2012–2019, when growth averaged 21% annually.

The firm highlighted that TransDigm’s recent $5 billion debt raise to fund a $90-per-share special dividend suggests larger acquisitions are unlikely soon, despite leverage of about six times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.

“We believe the law of large numbers has caught up with TDG,” Herbert wrote.

Aftermarket growth normalizing

While aftermarket demand remains healthy, RBC sees TransDigm’s growth advantage narrowing relative to peers. The company’s aftermarket sales are expected to lag by about 400 basis points in fiscal 2025 due in part to tough pricing comparisons. RBC projects 9% aftermarket growth in 2026 and 8% in 2027, consistent with industry trends but insufficient, in its view, to spark a valuation re-rating.

Valuation reset

Herbert cut the firm’s price target multiple, applying 19.5 times to RBC’s 2027 adjusted ebitda estimate of $5.6 billion. Consensus forecasts call for ebitda growth of 13% in fiscal 2025, stepping down to 10% in 2026 and 8% in 2027, well below the approximately 19% average from 2004 to 2025.

“While TDG has some of the most impressive margins in the industry (and potential for FY26 beat and raise), the step-down in organic revenue and EBITDA growth, with a normalizing AM, in our view does not provide a strong fundamental backdrop for a material valuation re-rating,” Herbert wrote.

He added that new CEO Nick Lisman is expected to continue executing TransDigm’s (TDG) proven playbook, but a shift from growth to capital return justifies a lower multiple.