分析人士争论美国之鹰的名人提振是否能超越关税

Wall Street cheered American Eagle Outfitters’ (NYSE:AEO) latest results as its star-powered campaigns with Sydney Sweeney and Travis Kelce helped drive traffic, delivering better-than-expected results and upbeat guidance for FY25.

Shares exploded higher on Thursday, reaching their highest level all year with a 34% gain, lifting the stock out of the red for the year.

Wall Street analysts also see plenty to cheer about in the results but are suspect of the company’s outlook given the persistent tariff risk and underlying inventory cost inflation.

Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe expects tariffs to pressure margins in the second half by $60M to $70M despite mitigation efforts, while BofA Securities’ Christopher Nardone puts the figure at the higher end of that range.

“We expect the net tariff impact to be weighted in the first half (est -350 basis point impact); this will likely limit margin upside given our forecast of 1% sales growth and our view that both brands (American Eagle and aerie) have limited pricing power,” Nardone said in his note to clients.

While the new celebrity campaigns are expected to continue driving traffic, the tariff risk puts upbeat FY25 guidance in question (which Seeking Alpha analyst Gary Alexander credits with the “meteoric” postmarket rally).

Morgan Stanley’s Alex Straton views Q3 guidance as “beat-able,” but with caveats. Namely, how durable is its top-line momentum as recent campaigns are “in the rearview,” and have tariff impacts been appropriately estimated in gross margin?

“Bigger picture, we note better Q3 guidance stands out in our coverage, where most have communicated more-cautious-than-consensus outlooks,” Stranton says of Equal-weight-rated American Eagle (NYSE:AEO).

Jefferies’ Tarlowe also held onto his Hold rating on American Eagle (NYSE:AEO) on looming tariff headwinds, negative top-line growth, and higher SG&A costs necessary to sustain the recent campaign momentum.

Also viewing tariffs as a major obstacle to improved profitability, BofA Securities’ Nardone kept an Underperform on American Eagle (AEO) with an $11 target, implying a 39% drop from current prices.

“We think the risk/reward is skewed to the downside as we expect tariffs and lower growth than peers to drive downward estimate revisions and multiple contraction,” he says.  

But for Seeking Alpha analyst Gary Alexander, the rewards outweigh the risks and views American Eagle (AEO) as a Buy with multiples that are still well below the S&P 500.

“We should also acknowledge the risks here. Consumer demand is fickle and subject to fads. American Eagle may have surfaced back in popular conversation after its recent marketing successes, and this jump in brand traffic may buoy Q3 results, but it won't be long until another brand takes center stage. In other words, we don't have certainty that American Eagle's plan to return to positive comps can be sustained for long…that being said, I see more upside than downside in this stock as it becomes ‘cool’ again and drives positive comps despite leaning out of promotions.”

American Eagle's (AEO) impressive rally is fueling gains for peers Urban Outfitters (URBN), Gap (GAP), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Victoria's Secret (VSCO), and Ralph Lauren (RL).