Gold price rises; Goldman says long-term outlook remains well supported

Gold futures rose Wednesday ahead of the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium, while minutes from the July monetary policy meeting showed broad support for the Federal Reserve's neutral monetary policy stance, with two dissenters apparently alone in favoring a rate cut.

Investors have been cautious in recent days ahead of the Jackson Hole conference, with markets looking to Federal Reserve Chair Powell's speech on Friday for some hints about whether a rate cut is in the cards at September's meeting.

Traders currently expect an 83% chance of a quarter-point rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Meanwhile, President Trump called on Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook to resign over allegations of mortgage fraud, as he continues his effort to gain influence over the central bank.

Gold has been broadly rangebound for several weeks on a seasonal lull in central bank and institutional gold demand, but the price appears to remain on firm ground, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note, maintaining its $4,000/oz expectations for mid-2026.

Goldman said its estimate is driven by structurally strong central bank demand and ETF inflows, supported by easing Fed monetary policy and a 30% U.S. 12-month recession risk that could increase gold inflows, and while a Russia-Ukraine peace deal could trigger a short-lived selloff as speculators sell, such a deal would not change fundamentals.

Front-month Comex gold (XAUUSD:CUR) for August delivery closed +0.9% to $3,343.40/oz, a one-week high, and front-month August Comex silver (XAGUSD:CUR) settled +1.2% to $37.705/oz.

ETFs: (NYSEARCA:GLD), (NYSEARCA:GDX), (GDXJ), (NYSEARCA:IAU), (NYSEARCA:NUGT), (PHYS), (GLDM), (AAAU), (SGOL), (RING), (BAR), (OUNZ), (SLV), (PSLV), (SIVR), (SIL), (SILJ)