美国银行称，“不那么漂亮”的复兴股票

BofA’s U.S. Regime Indicator recorded its biggest jump in more than a year in July, signaling a potential shift from “downturn” to “recovery,” according to Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. Equity Strategy and U.S. Quantitative Strategy at BofA.

This proprietary tool, developed to gauge the current stage of the U.S. business cycle, demonstrated significant momentum that caught the attention of market analysts. “August’s continued improvement is an early confirmation of a change from downturn to recovery,” Subramanian said.

Also, BofA researchers emphasize that this shift would become “official” after two consecutive months in the new regime. Historical data reveals that in prior recoveries, the “Nifty 50” lagged by -3.3 percentage points annually, with only a 36% hit rate.

Additionally, previous recovery periods saw 2x PE expansion for the “not-so-Nifty” 450 compared to the Nifty 50.

Market capitalization analysis from BofA shows the market cap-weighted S&P 500 (SP500), (SPY) has outperformed its equal-weighted (RSP) counterpart by 161% versus 81% from March 2015 to present. Also, the Nifty 50 outperformed the smallest 50 stocks by 403% on an equal-weighted basis.

While historical patterns might suggest continued dominance for large-cap stocks, BofA strategists believe this trend could be nearing its conclusion. “If the Fed’s next move is a rate cut, and if the Regime indicator is shifting to ‘recovery,’ we think the run may be closer to done,” Subramanian said. This potential shift creates significant implications for investors heavily weighted toward large-cap technology stocks (IYW).

The improvement in the Regime Indicator was broadly based, with six of its eight raw inputs showing positive movement in July, according to the research. The strengthening factors included EPS revisions ratio, inflation, GDP forecast, 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y), capacity utilization, and high yield spreads. However, Subramanian noted that leading economic indicators and ISM PMI weakened during the same period.

The indicator has been fluctuating between different phases since February 2022 amid volatile macroeconomic signals. According to BofA, these fluctuations stemmed from “inventory and demand whipsaws – first from COVID, this year from front-running tariff developments.”

Despite these historical inconsistencies, the current strength across multiple inputs suggests this recovery signal may have more staying power than previous false starts, though analysts remain cautious about declaring a definitive trend.

Below are S&P 500 (SP500) stocks with below median forward P/E, above median beta – how volatile vs. the overall market an asset is, whereas >1 means higher volatility and <1 means lower volatility – and below median market cap, as well as buy-rated by BofA analysts – the “not-so-nifty” revival stories:

• United Airlines (UAL) – Forward P/E: 7.7; Beta: 1.3
• Devon Energy (DVN) – Forward P/E: 8.0; Beta: 1.1
• Host Hotels & Resorts (HST) – Forward P/E: 8.1; Beta: 1.2
• Delta Air Lines (DAL) – Forward P/E: 8.4; Beta: 1.4
• Synchrony Financial (SYF) – Forward P/E: 8.4; Beta: 1.3
• Aptiv (APTV) – Forward P/E: 8.9; Beta: 1.3
• Healthpeak Properties (DOC) – Forward P/E: 9.0; Beta: 1.1
• First Solar (FSLR) – Forward P/E: 9.0; Beta: 1.3
• Halliburton Co. (HAL) – Forward P/E: 9.1; Beta: 1.1
• Eastman Chemical Co. (EMN) – Forward P/E: 9.3; Beta: 1.2
• BXP (BXP) – Forward P/E: 9.3; Beta: 1.1
• PulteGroup (PHM) – Forward P/E: 9.6; Beta: 1.2
• Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (HPE) – Forward P/E: 10.0; Beta: 1.3
• KeyCorp (KEY) – Forward P/E: 11.1; Beta: 1.1
• Steel Dynamics (STLD) – Forward P/E: 11.2; Beta: 1.3
• Mohawk Industries (MHK) – Forward P/E: 11.4; Beta: 1.2
• Expedia Group (EXPE) – Forward P/E: 11.5; Beta: 1.4
• Mosaic Co. (MOS) – Forward P/E: 12.5; Beta: 1.1
• Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT) – Forward P/E: 12.6; Beta: 1.1
• Lululemon Athletica (LULU) – Forward P/E: 13.3; Beta: 1.1
• Smurfit Westrock (SW) – Forward P/E: 13.6; Beta: 1.1
• Western Digital (WDC) – Forward P/E: 14.1; Beta: 1.4
• Nucor Corp. (NUE) – Forward P/E: 14.5; Beta: 1.5
• IQVIA Holdings (IQV) – Forward P/E: 14.9; Beta: 1.2
• Northern Trust (NTRS) – Forward P/E: 15.2; Beta: 1.2
• Regency Centers (REG) – Forward P/E: 15.3; Beta: 1.0
• Seagate Technology (STX) – Forward P/E: 15.7; Beta: 1.3
• International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF) – Forward P/E: 16.0; Beta: 1.0
• Weyerhaeuser (WY) – Forward P/E: 16.7; Beta: 1.1
• Dover (DOV) – Forward P/E: 18.4; Beta: 1.2