Casey's rally faces test amid slowing volume and valuation concerns

Casey’s General Stores (NASDAQ:CASY) notched its third record high in 10 days Tuesday, as strong Q4 results, a dividend hike, and upbeat FY26 EBITDA guidance keep shares near all-time highs.

Fiscal 2025 was the largest sales growth year in Casey’s (NASDAQ:CASY) history with 35 new builds and 235 acquired units, all of which contributed to the company’s record financial results, including 11% inside sales growth and 10.3% growth in prepared foods and dispensed beverages.

“Casey's still has the best- in-class food program, rural footprint, self-distribution and scale that has made Casey's a great company for so many years. We've made it a priority to improve operating expense management, generate more free cash flow and improve return on invested capital, all of which was on full display this fiscal year,” CEO Darren Rebelez said on the company’s earnings call.

However, despite strong financial results, and growth potential, the stock trades at a very high valuation with a P/E over 30x.

“Although Casey’s has achieved impressive growth over the years, their stretched valuation may have gotten ahead of itself,” Seeking Alpha analyst The Dividend Collectuh said, adding that “while it’s possible the convenience store operator could have re-rated, their forward P/E over 31x could mean stagnant returns going forward.”

Looking at the performance over the past 10 days, Casey’s trading volume has consistently declined, currently at just 160K shares traded vs a 440K average, while overbought signals indicate exhaustion at the $514 level.