Top Seeking Alpha Quant在金融行业中挑选收益

The S&P 500’s financials sector (NYSEARCA:XLF) rose 3.3% in the first quarter, a period marred with volatility driven by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies .

Bank stocks did not have the best first quarter and fell in the period as uncertainty over the Trump administration's tariffs and other policies caused companies to delay mergers and other transactions, which reduced demand for banking services related to lending and debt and stock issuances.

The financials sector is expected to see the fifth-highest year-over-year earnings growth rate of all eleven sectors for the first quarter at 2.3%, John Butters from FactSet said.

According to Seeking Alpha's Quant Rating system, the financials sector has an average health score of 3.31. The system awards grades based on quantitative measures, like valuation, earnings growth, and recent stock performance. The highest possible score for any individual company is 5.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), Bank of New York Mellon (BK) and Wells Fargo (WFC) led the pack, with ratings of 4.94, 4.86, and 4.82, respectively.

The Berkshire Hathaway in late February reported operating earnings of nearly $50B in 2024 and said that its cash pile had swelled to a record $334.20B.

The company made headlines last year for its sizable stake reductions in Apple (AAPL) and Bank of America (BAC)

“Berkshire Hathaway has surpassed a $1 trillion valuation, driven by a robust core business and strong cash position,” Seeking Alpha analyst The Value Portfolio said.

“The company's earnings and segment breakdown highlight its diverse and resilient business operations. A significant risk is its massive cash position, which may underperform if not utilized during market downturns,” The Value Portfolio added.

Bank of New York Mellon (BK) delivered stronger-than-expected Q4 2024 results that featured an increase in the profit it makes from the difference between interest earned on loans and paid on deposits.

In February, Seeking Alpha analyst Albert Anthony, upgraded BK to buy and said, “Upside can come from recent loan growth, AUM/AUA growth, a strong profit margin, and a leadership position among global custodian banks.”

Piper Sandler upgraded Wells Fargo (WFC)  to Overweight from Neutral as the bank moves to offense from defense and due to its quicker pace of regulatory resolution.

Morgan Stanley re-assessed EPS estimates and price targets for super-regional banks, given its outlook for slower GDP growth and an increased probability of recession. However, the firm sees two names as underappreciated in the sector, one being Wells Fargo (WFC). WFC stands to benefit from a more supportive regulatory environment.

Wells Fargo (WFC) turned in mixed Q4 results, but expects net interest income to rise and noninterest expenses to decline in 2025.

MarketAxess (MKTX) bottom the pack with a quant score of 2.31. The firm had reported strong trading volumes for March and Q1 2025.

At the industry level, four of the five industries in the sector are expected to report year-over-year earnings growth: Consumer Finance, Capital Markets, Banks, and Financial Services, Butters said, adding the Consumer Finance industry is expected to report the highest earnings growth in the sector at 23%.

However, the insurance is the only industry in the financials sector that is expected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings at -15%.

In March, Barclays propelled its view on the Financials (NYSEARCA:XLF) sector, setting its sights partially on what’s considered to be a looser regulatory environment in Washington.

“XLF is showing relative strength, outperforming broader indices and topping in early March,” Seeking Alpha analyst MacroGirl said.

 Despite risks, XLF's positive backdrop and relative strength indicate it could continue to perform well if the economy avoids recession, MacroGirl added.

However, another Seeking Alpha analyst, Paul Franke, took a more negative view of the sector and said, “The U.S. banking and financial sector is at risk of a significant downturn if a recession unfolds in early 2025, shocking overconfident investor sentiment.”

Historical recessions show that bank/insurance equities, particularly those in the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF, suffer substantial declines during contractions in GDP on loan/bond write-down fears, Franke added.