特朗普公布关税后，英伟达、博通仍是美国银行的首选

BofA said its top picks remain Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX) and Cadence Design Systems (NASDAQ:CDNS), those with the best scale, profit margins, balance sheets, after President Donald Trump announced tariffs on trading partners.

Analysts led by Vivek Arya said Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) declined -10% the first day after the announcement of “reciprocal tariffs” versus S&P 500 Index (SPX) -5%. The analysts added that semiconductors are explicitly exempted from the tariff list, but the final electronics (such as personal computers, or PCs, smartphones, servers) that semis are built into are directly impacted.

Those with U.S.-based manufacturing assets, Texas Instruments (TXN), Intel (INTC) GlobalFoundries (NASDAQ:GFS) and Wolfspeed (WOLF); high pricing power Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), Arm (ARM);and Electronic Design Automation, or EDAs, Cadence Design and Synopsys (SNPS) generally fared better, according to the analysts.

The analysts added that companies with high proportion of offshore manufacturing, Coherent (COHR), Lumentum (LITE) Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC) and Credo Technology (CRDO); high debt load MKS Instruments (MKSI) and Microchip Technology (MCHP); and high smartphone exposures Skyworks (SWKS) and Qorvo (QRVO), underperformed relative to the SOX.

Arya and his team said no companies are immune from the tariffs, and they expect those with healthy balance sheet and strong fundamental exposure in AI/cloud/complexity to stay more resilient over the medium/long-term. Mainly, they expect AI buildout to remain relatively healthy under large U.S. cloud customers who can afford to pay more for mission-critical AI deployments, and for the related vendors to outperform over time.

During market downturns, EDA vendors Cadence and Synopsys, as well as high free cash flow generators Texas Instruments and Analog Devices (ADI) have tended to fare better historically.

Meanwhile, small and mid-cap, or SMidcaps, including Astera Labs (ALAB), Credo (CRDO), Lumentum, Coherent (COHR), Advanced Energy Industries (AEIS), MKS Instruments (MKSI), Camtek (CAMT), Nova (NVMI) and ON Semiconductor (ON) have tended to underperform, the analysts added.

However, the analysts assume that the strength of the AI buildout is robust enough to offset some of the macro headwinds. In addition, balance sheets of infrastructure build out customers (U.S. cloud, sovereign entities, Stargate, and EU among others) suggest that they would rather find a way to negotiate with the current White House (such as promise of greater U.S. investments etc.) to soften the impact.

In addition, Arya and his team said that media reports suggest Intel (INTC) has recently reached a preliminary agreement to form a joint venture, or JV, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) to operate some of Intel’s manufacturing facilities. Reportedly, in the JV, TSM would take a 20% stake in the newly formed company, while Intel and other U.S.-based fabless vendors would take the remaining majority. None of the parties have made any statements to date, the analysts noted.

However, the analysts said several questions remain, including — the motive behind TSM helping out its potential competitor; the motive behind requesting for help if its ‘Intel 18A’ node is ramping as planned in second half of 2025 and should help Intel Foundry reach breakeven byCY27; TSM's own ability to serve U.S.-based leading-edge/AI customers through its $65B and $100B investments in Arizona, without this JV; mismatch between Intel and TSM's manufacturing processes; and constraints of CHIPS Act funding and return-on-investment, or ROI, requirements from co-investment partners Apollo/Brookfield, the analysts added.

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