第四季度业绩令人耳目一新，前景未能达到崇高的预期

Freshpet (NASDAQ:FRPT) shares are under heavy selling pressure Thursday, facing its worst day since August 2022 as solid Q4 results were short of Wall Street’s ambitious expectations and a below-consensus outlook for FY25 resulted in a double-digit loss for the stock.

"Fiscal year 2024 was a breakout year for Freshpet,” said the company’s CEO Billy Cyr adding that the company delivered “exceptional” net sales growth and strong profit improvements, exceeding some of the fiscal year 2027 targets set two years ago. The company also delivered full-year positive net income for the first time and expects to be free cash flow positive by 2026.

Despite a 22% increase in sales, 68% surge in adjusted EBITDA, and 650 basis point expansion in adjusted gross margin, investors were spooked by a miss on both sales and profits, and FY25 sales guidance that missed estimates by $10M to $40M.

For FY25, the company forecasts sales to be between $1.18B and $1.21B, up from $975.2M in 2024, but less than $1.22B estimates. Adjusted EBITDA should reach at least $210M from $161.8M in 2024, and capital expenditures will reach ~$250M.

For 2027, Freshpet (NASDAQ:FRPT) raised its outlook for adjusted gross margin to 48% from 45%, and adjusted EBITDA margin to 22% from 18%, prior. Net sales are expected to hit $1.8B, unchanged from previous guidance. This is also less than $1.82B estimates.

The outsized loss for Freshpet (NASDAQ:FRPT) is spilling over into shares of Petco Health and Wellness (WOOF), and Chewy (CHWY), both of which are trading with modest losses in sympathy.