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Winners and losers from the December Retail Sales Report

2025-01-16 22:02

The December Retail Sales report on Thursday showed sales were up solidly, but came in below expectations, with the headline print of +0.4% trailing both the consensus mark of +0.6% and November's growth of +0.8%.

In a surprise, the nonstore retailers category was only up 0.2% month-over-month and 6.0% higher year-over-year after a long stretch of regularly outperforming broad retail. While a quirk of Thanksgiving falling on the calendar as late as possible may have impacted sales, the slow growth could be something to watch for e-commerce pure plays such as Amazon (AMZN), Wayfair (W), Chewy (CHWY), Etsy (ETSY), Qurate Retail (QRTEA), eBay (EBAY), Beyond (BYON) , and Newegg (NEGG) that typically see big December growth marks.  

Home improvement retailers Home Depot (HD) and Lowe's (LOW) should also be on alert after the building materials & garden equipment category saw negative month-over-month and year-over-year growth.

Restaurant sales growth also ran below the broad retail sales marks, as consumers may have reacted to the elevated level of menu prices. Typically, that impacts dine-in companies such as Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) to a higher degree than fast-food chains such as McDonald's (MCD) and Taco Bell (YUM).

On the flip side, the furniture & home furnishings category topped expectations, with a 2.3% month-over-month and 8.4% year-over-year jump. That bodes well for Williams-Sonoma (WSM), RH (RH), Arhaus (ARHS), Ethan Allen (ETD), La-Z-Boy (LZB), and TJX Companies (TJX) into earnings season.

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