反应综述：SA分析师、专家对10月份PCE数据发表看法

Wall Street's focus on Wednesday was on the October U.S. personal income and outlays report, which also contained the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge - the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index.

The core PCE deflator inched up 0.3% M/M in October, in-line with estimates and September's reading. On a Y/Y basis, core PCE rose 2.8%, also in-line but accelerating from the previous month's +2.7%.   

U.S. stocks (SP500) opened mixed before PCE, as market participants digested a busy economic calendar. Equities then moved steadily lower after the personal income and outlays data. Here are some exchange-traded funds that track the benchmark index: (SPY), (VOO), (IVV), (RSP), (SSO), (UPRO), (SH), (SDS), and (SPXU). 

See below for various reactions to the PCE report:

Jacob Hess, Seeking Alpha analyst with MTS Insights:

"The strong increase in disposable income in October, which outpaced consumption growth for the first time in over 7 months, is supportive of consumers (who were stretched in Q3) ahead of the holiday season. Wage growth continues to be solid, up another 0.5% MoM. Robust wage growth is also a signal that the labor market is solid even if there are some signs of slowing elsewhere.

Strong consumer spending on services is keeping the inflation question in the Fed’s mind. The services PCE component was up 0.4% MoM, the strongest since March and up 3.9% YoY, 0.2 ppts higher than September. Goods spending is also starting to re-accelerate as goods prices fall (goods PC is above 3% YoY for the first time in about a year). Today’s report suggests the Fed should pause and reassess the inflation situation in December."

Chris Lau, investing group leader of DIY Value Investing:

"The core PCE increase of 0.3% is nearly within the range reported since June. However, personal income in current dollars increased by 0.6%. After disposable income strengthened, stock markets are unsure that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 bps in December’s meeting. While the chances are 50/50, brace for a neutral stance in Fed policy in 2025. The central bank will need to weigh on tariffs and income tax cuts re-igniting inflation."

Matt Colyar, economist at Moody’s Analytics:

"In line with expectations, the personal consumption expenditure, or PCE, deflator rose 0.2% in October. The latest monthly change lifted the year-ago rate from 2.1% to 2.3%. The core PCE deflator, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3%, which increased the twelve-month rate from 2.7% to 2.8%.

Despite the modest increase in year-ago rates, both figures are consistent with inflation’s steady cooling observed throughout 2024. They will not alter the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee’s evaluation of current economic conditions."

Jason Furman, former deputy director of the U.S. National Economic Council:

"Very likely we'll see 12-month core PCE prints 3.0% by the end of the year. This is coming in above what the FOMC projected (in Dec-23 projected Q4/Q4 at 2.4%, in Sep-24 they projected 2.6%, am now guessing 2.9%).

Overall, adds more grist to the thesis that the last mile will be the hardest and that we're in a no landing scenario. Still a good chance of a soft landing given lagged shelter & imputed stuff. But it hasn't happened yet and is far from certain."

Parker Ross, global chief economist at Arch Capital Group:

"October headline PCE inflation accelerated to 0.20% m/m from 0.175% in September, while core PCE inflation accelerated even more to 0.30% from 0.25%.

However, the entire acceleration was driven by a 3.5% m/m (sa) jump in portfolio management fees, which contributed 5.2bps to headline and 5.8bps to core inflation in October, up from effectively zero in September.

In other words, solid market returns in October caused portfolio management fees to go up."

Renaissance Macro Research:

"'THE FED SHOULD FEEL THE INFLATION DATA AND LOOK AT MARKET BASED CORE!' Donald Trump, next year probably. 

Imputed prices a factor behind firmer core PCE inflation, adding about 0.4ppt annualized in recent months."

Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at The Budget Lab at Yale:

"Headline PCE came in at 0.24% MM. Core PCE inflation was 0.27% MM. Market-based core, a better measure of trend, was 0.18% MM. For reference, 2% annualized translates to about 0.17% MM.

Filtering through noise, PCE inflation is steadily trending around 2.5% annualized right now."

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