韦德布什表示，咀嚼2022年的收入可能达不到预期街景，但近期收益面临有限的下行风险

03:48 PM EDT, 06/21/2022 (MT Newswires) -- Chewy (CHWY) could slightly miss Wall Street estimates for fiscal 2022 revenue, but the online pet supply retailer is expected to see limited downside risk to earnings in the near-term while its long-term potential looks strong, Wedbush Securities said Tuesday.

The firm continues to expect Chewy's fiscal 2022 revenue around $10.26 billion, almost in line with the company's guidance, but below the Street's views for $10.27 billion. For the next 12 months, Wedbush expects the company to see 15% sales growth, compared with the 12% median growth forecast for its peers.

Analysts led by Seth Basham upgraded their rating on Chewy's stock to outperform from neutral and increased its price target to $35 from $30, citing better risk-reward, along with "relatively favorable pet category dynamics, bottoming e-commerce trends and attractive valuation."

Basham said the company could face "modest risk" to consensus net customer additions estimates in 2022, but it can offset it with net spending per average customer, which is expected to grow 13%.

The company is also expected to see elevated churn throughout fiscal 2022, "but with the worst likely over" as it laps a stimulus-driven 2021 first-quarter customer cohort, Basham added.

Wedbush said it expects Chewy's 2022 gross customer additions to drop year-over-year to 5.7 million from 6.9 million as discretionary spending issues limit new customer growth, the pet boom fades, and customer acquisition costs remain elevated. However, customer churn is expected to "materially improve" in fiscal 2023, the analysts said in a note.

The company may also see "significant" margin upside to both Wedbush and Street estimates if it can successfully pass on most of the upcoming supplier price increases and maintain discipline on promotions.

"While [Chewy's] valuation appears less attractive than some peers, we believe that the stock deserves a premium valuation due to the company's sizable mix of reoccurring and non-discretionary revenues," Basham said.

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