LIVE MARKETS U.S.-A case for dividend sustainability at banks

* U.S. stocks oscillate after Monday's plunge: S&P last up 1%

   * Tech, consumer discretionary, financials lead gainers

   * Oil climbs ~8%, gold falls; 10-yr T-note yield ~0.67% 

   March 10 (Reuters) - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of U.S. equity markets brought to you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Caroline Valetkevitch. Reach her on Messenger to share your thoughts on market moves: caroline.valetkevitch.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net 

   A CASE FOR DIVIDEND SUSTAINABILITY AT BANKS (1305 EDT/ 1705 GMT)

   The S&P 500 bank index has tumbled with U.S. Treasury yields due to intensifying worries about the economic impact of the novel coronavirus and the recent collapse of oil prices. The bank index was last up 3% on Tuesday.

   But while investors try to calculate the potential earnings damage from lower interest rates and likely higher credit costs, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analysts are suggesting that at least their dividends should be sustainable though they concede that pressure on earnings would mean higher pay-out ratios.

   They wrote on Tuesday that strong capital ratios are their first line of defense for dividends as current capital levels are "near generational highs." This and years of stress testing, should provide "comfort that balance sheets are well positioned to withstand a slowdown in the economy," they said.

   The second line of defense for dividends is what KBW calls "flexing the buyback." It notes that banks have been active stock repurchasers with 36 announcing new or expanded authorizations since late in the fourth quarter.

   With buybacks, it wrote: "the ability to pause is a distinguishing characteristic of this capital return strategy, especially relative to the negative stigma associated with reducing dividends."

   Therefore, if uncertainty increases materially and credit costs accelerate, KBW says "banks can adjust the pace of buyback to help preserve capital and dividends."

   So which dividend yields look most attractive? KBW notes that relative to the U.S. Treasury 10-year yield, several banks provide notably higher dividends that it says "are sustainable." It cited Wells Fargo with the top yield at 6.3% followed by Citigroup at 4.0%. For the large regionals, they cite Comerica at 7.6%, Citizens Financial at 6.9%, Huntington Bancshares at 6.3%, and KeyCorp at 6.1%. For the smaller banks it cites Cadence Bancorp at 8.4%, Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son at 8.1% and Umpqa Holdings at 7.5%.

   (Sinéad Carew)

   *****

  

   STOCKS BACK UP OVER 1% AFTER BRIEFLY GIVING UP GAINS (1201 EDT/1601 GMT)

   The S&P 500 rose back above 1% again after briefly trading in negative territory in volatile midday activity on Tuesday.

   The market gained back some ground after comments by U.S. Vice President Mike Pence that private U.S. health insurance companies have agreed to cover coronavirus treatment and waive co-payment fees for coronavirus testing, but indexes were well off their highs of the day.

   The White House was meeting with insurance company executives.

   "The market has been crying out for fiscal stimulus and something to allevate the oncoming pain in certain sectors if this continues," said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial in Newark, New Jersey.

   Indexes were still well off the highs of the day. The S&P 500 was up more than 3% in early trading as the discussion of possible U.S. stimulus efforts helped to ease investor worries about the impact of the coronavirus.

   Earlier, President Donald Trump vowed to take "major" steps to protect the U.S. economy from a major blow, including a possible payroll tax cut.

   "That is a very good measure to help the consumer, but we're still in this process of having people go into hibernation, self-quarantine," said Michael O'Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading in Stamford, Connecticut. "So in the short term, it shouldn't do that much. But in three, four, five weeks people will hopefully come out, and then that should be meaningful to help the economy start going again."

          

   (Caroline Valetkevitch, April Joyner)

   *****

  

   THERE'S GOT TO BE A MORNING AFTER: SMALL BUSINESS SENTIMENT INCHES UP (1115 EDT/1515 GMT)

   Investors crawling from Monday's wreckage and scanning the landscape for reassuring data on Tuesday found a scrap in the form of an uptick in small business optimism.

   The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its Small Business Optimism index , which showed sentiment edging up 20 basis points to a reading of 104.5.

   An eight-point advance in the "expect economy to improve" component offset declines in plans to invest in capex and inventories.

   "February was another historically strong month for the small business economy, but it's worth noting that nearly all of the survey's responses were collected prior to the recent escalation of the coronavirus outbreak and the Federal Reserve rate cut," notes William Dunkelberg, chief economist at NFIB.

   Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics put it more bluntly: "The index is very sensitive to movements in the S&P 500; it will tank in March." 

   U.S. stocks bounced back from the brink of bear market confirmation in morning trading, pushed higher by bargain hunting and hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve will hop on its white horse and deliver stimulus in the form of additional interest rate cuts at the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy meeting next week.

   All three major U.S. stock averages in the black, but pared back from 3% gains seen early in the session.

   (Stephen Culp)

   *****

  

   WALL ST UP ABOUT 2% IN EARLY TRADING (1030 EDT/1430 GMT)

   U.S. stocks were up about 2% in early, volatile trading Tuesday, rebounding from Monday's 7% plunge as the discussion of possible U.S. stimulus efforts helped to ease investor worries about the impact of the coronavirus.

   The energy index led early gains in the S&P 500, along with technology . As stocks have pared gains somewhat, tech is now leading among sectors.

   A bounce back in oil added to the positive tone. U.S. oil, whose more than 20% swoon on Monday precipitated the stocks sell-off, was up last about 6%, recouping some losses after Russia indicated that talks with OPEC to limit supply are still possible.

   Given the recent sell-off, investors are quickly trying to adjust their outlooks.

   "March is historically a make or break month when it comes to determining the trajectory of stocks for the rest of this year," strategists at DataTrek Research wrote. "An improved outlook for US stocks hinges on the specifics and timing of a federal government response."

   Here is an early morning snapshot:

        

   (Caroline Valetkevitch)

   *****

  

   NYSE COMPOSITE: BEAR STRETCHES ITS LEGS (0925 EDT/1325 GMT)

   The NYSE Composite topped in January, ahead of the Dow , S&P 500 , and Nasdaq Composite . And with Monday's swoon, this index covering all stocks listed on the NYSE became the first of them to end down more than 20% from its all-time high close (-20.34%).

   That said, the NYSE Composite sports perhaps the clearest potential Elliott Wave count among these indexes. Indeed, the NYA may have completed a five-wave decline into yesterday's low. If so, it argues for a multi-day retracement rally. (Click on chart below.)

   Meanwhile, the SPX appears to have survived tests of a significant support zone on Monday. Fitting with that and the NYA's potential wave count, CME S&P 500 E-Mini Futures are suggesting the SPX may bounce more than 3% at the open.

   The structure of any rally will be key, but if the NYA did complete a five-wave decline, the extent of any recovery could be surprisingly large.

   Initial Fibonacci retracements of the NYA's January to March slide are at 11,935.20, 12,364.80 and 12,712.02. A recovery to the wave 4 high, 61.8% retracement and 200-day moving average could see the NYA challenge the 13,015.66/13,059.23/13,213 area.

   In any event, a five-wave decline could be signaling a significant trend change. After a retracement rally, the NYA could resume its bear and fall to new lows.

   The next support below Monday's low (11,240.77) is at the December 2018 trough (10,723.66).   

   (Terence Gabriel)

   *****

  

  

   FUTURES, OIL BOUNCE BACK AFTER DRUBBING (0900 EDT/1300 GMT)

   After Monday's market rout, U.S. stock futures are in the green on Tuesday morning.

   The rebound comes as several countries are taking measures to combat the impact of the coronavirus. President Donald Trump vowed to take "major" steps to protect the U.S. economy from a major blow, including a possible payroll tax cut, while Japan announced a $4 billion stimulus package. Meanwhile, Italy has placed the country on lockdown to help stem the spread of the virus.

   Oil, whose more than 20% swoon on Monday precipitated the stocks sell-off, is also recouping some losses after Russia indicated that talks with OPEC to limit supply are still possible.

   Here is a premarket snapshot:   

   (April Joyner)

   *****

 

  

  

  

  

  

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Live Markets premarket Mar 10, 2020

NYA03102020

Early US stocks trading

NFIB Image

Midday US stocks snapshot

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*美国股市周一暴跌�矗罕昶兆詈�1%

*科技、消费者酌处权、�喙闪煺�

*石油上涨8%，黄��10年T-钞票收益率~0.67%

路透3月10日电-路透股票记者为您带来的、�煽蘖铡ね呃程乜宋�(Caroline Valetkevitch)�拿拦墒惺凳北ǖ阑队牡嚼础Ｍü攀沽邓窒砟愣允谐∽呤频南敕ǎ篶aroline.valetkevitch.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net

银行股息可持续性�1305 EDT/1705 GMT)

标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)与美国国债收益率�嗣窃嚼丛降Ｐ恼庵中滦凸谧床《径跃玫挠跋欤约敖谟图鄣谋┑Ｒ兄甘谥芏詈紊险�3%。

但尽管投资者试图计算低利率和可能的信贷成本可能带来的收益�獽eefe、Bruyette&Woods分�ㄒ椋辽偎堑墓上⒂Ω檬强沙中模」芩浅腥希杂难沽馕蹲鸥叩闹Ц侗嚷省�

他们周二写道，强劲的资本比率是他们�上⒌牡谝坏婪老撸壳暗淖时舅健敖咏来叩恪薄Ｋ潜硎荆庵盅沽Σ馐砸约岸嗄甑难沽Σ馐裕δ芪白什赫砟芄缓芎玫氐钟梅呕禾峁┌参俊薄�

�上⒌牡诙呤荎BW所谓的“展示回购”。它指�匀ツ甑谒募径饶┮岳矗幸恢痹诨泄善被毓海�36家银行宣布了新的�谌ā�

通过回购，它写道：“暂停的能力是这种资本回报策略的一�卣绕涫窍喽杂谟爰上⑾喙氐母好嫖勖浴！�

�绻蝗范ㄐ源糯杀炯涌欤琄BW表示，“银行可以�毓旱乃俣龋园镏Ａ竞凸上ⅰ！�

那么，哪种股息收益率看�钣形Γ縆BW指�喽杂诿拦�10年期国债收益率，几家银行提供了更高的股息，称其“是可持续的”。报告指�还�(WellsFargo)的最高收益率为6.3%，花旗集团(Citigroup)为4.0%。在�厍侨衔狢omerica指数为7.6%，国�谥甘�6.9%，亨廷顿银行股票为6.3%，KeyCorp公司为6.1%。对于规模较小的银行，它引用了卡登斯银行(Cadence Bancorp)的8.4%、N.T.巴特菲尔德银行(Bank of N.T.Butterfield&son)的8.1%和Umpqa Holdings

(Sinéad Carew)

*****

股票在短暂放弃涨幅��1%(1201EDT/1601GMT)

标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)周二在波动较�缗潭淘萁灰缀俅位厣�1%以上。

美国副总统�づ硭�(MikePence)表示，美国私人医疗保险公司已同意支付冠状病毒治疗费用，并免除了冠状病毒检测的共同支付费用，市场随�厣甘栽兜陀诘碧斓母叩恪�

白宫正在与保险公司高管会面。

保诚�Prudential Financial)驻新�菖ν呖�(Newark)首席市场策略师昆�寺匏贡�(Quincy Krosby)表示：“如果这种情�氯ィ谐∫恢逼惹行枰普碳ご胧┖湍持执胧├椿航饽承┬幸导唇嚼吹耐纯唷！�

指数仍远低于当天的高点。标普500指数早盘上涨逾3%，�勖拦赡懿扇〉拇碳ご胧┯兄诨航馔蹲收叨怨谧床《居跋斓牡Ｓ�.

早些时�拦芡程颇傻隆ぬ乩势�(Donald Trump)誓言将采取“重�胧；っ拦貌皇苤卮赡艿墓ぷ仕跋�

“这是帮助消费者的一项非常好的措施，但我们仍在让人们进入冬眠、自我�墓蹋笨的腋固垢５虑硭姑骋坠�(JonesTrading)首席市场策略师�ぐ侣扯�(Michael O‘Rourke)表示。“�诙唐谀冢挥Ω糜卸啻谩５谌⑺摹⑽逯苣冢嗣怯型缓园镏弥匦驴加幸庖濉！�

(卡罗琳·瓦莱特克维奇，阿普�で且聊�)

*****

一定有一�恐∑樾仙�(美国东部时间1115年/�嶂问奔�1515)

投资者从周一的残骸中爬�邢腹鄄熘芏嫉牧钊朔判牡氖荩⑾中∑止矍樾仙�

美国独立�匣�(NFIB)发布了小�止壑甘弥甘允拘判闹甘仙�20�悖�104.5。

“经济好转预期”中的八点涨幅抵消了投资于资本和库存计划的下降。

NFIB首席经济学家威廉·邓克尔伯�lliam Dunkelberg)指��2月份是小型�美飞嫌忠桓⒌脑路荩档米⒁獾氖牵负械峁际窃谧罱谧床《颈⑸逗兔懒�(Fed)降息之前收集的。”

�詈旯劬醚紫醚Ъ乙炼黄玫律�(IanSheferdson)更直截了当地说：“该指数对标准普尔500指数的走势非常�凰�3月份�碌！�

美国股市在早盘交易中从熊市确认的边缘反弹，在寻找便宜�贫伦吒撸⑾Ｍ拦畲⒈肝被�(US Federal Reserve)在下周为期两天的�呋嵋榻崾保扇〗徊浇迪⒌男问剑瞥ご胧�

三�墒芯显缗淌钡�3%涨幅有所回落。

(Stephen Culp)

*****

华尔街早盘上涨约2%(美国东部时间1030/�嶂问奔�1430)

美国股市周二早盘上涨约2%，较周一的7%�兴吹Ｌ致勖拦赡懿扇〉拇碳ご胧┯兄诨航馔蹲收叨怨谧床《居跋斓牡Ｓ恰�

能源指数带动了标准普尔500指数和科技股的早期上涨。随着股市涨幅有所放缓，科技股目前在�抵写τ诹煜鹊匚弧�

油的反弹�嘶挠锲Ｃ拦椭芤槐┑�20%以上，最终上涨约6%，在俄罗斯暗示与欧佩克谈判限制供应的可能性之�拦褪崭戳瞬糠炙�

考虑到最近的抛售，投资者正在迅速�堑那熬啊�

DataTrekResearch的策略师写道：“从历史上看，3月是�Ｓ嗍奔涔墒凶呤频囊桓茉路荨！薄懊拦墒星熬暗母纳迫【钫赜Φ木咛逑附诤褪被！�

以下是清晨的快照：

(卡洛琳·瓦莱特克维奇)

*****

纽约证券交易所复合：熊伸展其腿(美国东部时间0925/1325GMT)

纽约证交所指数在1月份达到最高点，高于道琼斯指数、标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数。随着周一的暴跌，这一涵盖纽约证交所所有上市股票的指数成为第一�痰�20%的股票。该指数收于历史最高水平(-20.34%)。

话虽如此，纽约证交所的综合体育�钦庑┲甘凶罹咔绷Φ陌蕴夭�(ElliottWave)。事实上，纽约证交所可能已经完成了五波跌势，跌至�偷�.如果是这样的话，它�幸淮味嗵斓幕爻贩吹�(单�娴耐急怼�)

与此同时，SPX似�芤煌ü艘桓闹С智牟馐浴Ｓ肱υ贾そ凰那痹诓ㄊ辔呛希珻MES&P 500 E-Mini期�維PX可能在开盘时反弹超过3%。

任何反弹的结构都将是关键，但如果纽约证交所真的完成了五波下跌，任何复苏的程度都可能令人吃惊。

纽约1月至3月下滑的最�onacci指数为11，935.20，12，364.80和12，712.02。恢复到第4波高点、61.8%的回撤和200天移动平均线，纽约证交所可能会对13，015.66/13，059.23/13，213区提�健�

无论如何，五波下跌可能预示着一�那浠Ｔ诨爻贩吹υ贾そ凰赡芑指葱苁校⒌列碌汀�

下周一低点(11，240.77)的下一支撑位是2018年12月的低点(10，723.66)。

(特伦斯·加布里埃尔)

*****

期�图壑卮旌�(0900东部时间/1300�嶂问奔�)

在周一股市暴跌之�拦善逼诨衔绯松险恰�

这一反弹发生之际，有几�艺诓扇〈胧Χ怨谧床《镜挠跋臁Ｃ拦芡程颇傻隆ぬ乩势�(Donald Trump)誓言将采取“重�胧员；っ拦貌皇苤卮赡艿墓ぷ仕跋毡驹剂�40亿美元的刺激方案。与此同时，意�呀霉糜诮兆刺园镏《镜拇ァ�

在俄罗斯表示与欧佩克就限制石油供应进行谈判�图墼谥芤槐┑�20%以上�谑崭床糠炙�

以下是市场前的快照：

(4月Joyner)

*****

/>市场预售期2020年3月10日

NYA 03102020

美国股市早盘交易

NFIB图�>

美国股市午盘快照

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