BioMarin (BMRN) Down 8% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN-Free Report) . Shares have lost about 8% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is BioMarin due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

BioMarin Q4 Earnings Beat, Sales Miss

BioMarin’s adjusted earnings of 25 cents per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 21 cents. In the year-ago quarter, the company had incurred loss of 6 cents per share.

Total revenues were $454.4 million in the reported quarter, up 29% from the year-ago period, driven by higher product revenues. Sales missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $462 million.

Quarterly Details

Product revenues (including Aldurazyme) were $436.6 million in the fourth quarter, reflecting a 25.7% increase year over year. Product revenues from BioMarin's marketed brands (excluding Aldurazyme) grew 25% year over year to $412.7 million. Royalty and other revenues were $17.9 million in the quarter, higher than $6.0 million a year ago.

Its PKU franchise sales rose 28% year over year in the quarter to $154.3 million. Kuvan revenues rose 9% to $122.6 million driven by patient growth in North America.

Palynziq injection sales grossed $31.7 million in the quarter compared with $24.1 million in the previous quarter, driven by new patients initiating therapy as well as the growing number of patients who have now achieved maintenance dosing. The majority of Palynziq sales came from the United States. As of Dec 30, 2019, 762 U.S. commercial patients were on treatment with Palynziq versus 670 at the end of the third quarter. Of the 762 patients, 137 were from clinical studies and 625 were naive to Palynziq treatment. Another 143 patients have been enrolled and are awaiting their first treatment with Palynziq.

In the EU, Palynziq injection was approved in May. BioMarin said that multiple clinics across Germany were now treating patients. The company is working to get reimbursement approvals in other European countries and expects meaningful contribution from European sales of Palynziq in 2020.

Naglazyme sales rose 24% to $94.8 million mainly due to orders from Brazil.

Vimizim contributed $132.3 million to total revenues, up 16% year over year owing to patient growth in the United States and orders from Brazil.

Naglazyme and Vimzim revenues vary on a quarterly basis, primarily due to the timing of central government orders from some countries, mainly Brazil.

Brineura generated sales of $25.2 million in the fourth quarter, higher than $19.8 million reported in the previous quarter due to patient growth.

BioMarin received Aldurazyme royalties totaling $23.9 million from Genzyme in the quarter, up 37% year over year.

R&D expenses rose 3.9% year over year to $155.5 million due to costs for pipeline development. Marketing expenses associated with Palynziq commercial efforts and launch preparations for valrox resulted in 15.6% increase in SG&A expenses to $161.2 million.

As of Dec 31, 2019, BioMarin had $1.2 billion in cash, cash equivalents and investments, same as at the end of Sep 30, 2019.

2019 Results

Full-year 2019 sales rose 14% to $1.70 billion, slightly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.71 billion. However, sales were within the guided range of $1.69-$1.72 billion.

Adjusted earnings of 93 cents per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 89 cents. Earnings rose 82% year over year.

2020 Guidance

BioMarin expects total revenues in 2020 to come in the range of $1.95-$2.05 billion, which indicates growth of 17% at the middle of the range. Vimizim sales are expected in the range of $560-$610 million for the full year. Kuvan sales are projected within $430-$480 million. Naglazyme sales are predicted in the band of $380-$420 million. Brineura sales are expected within $85-$115 million. Palynziq sales are forecast in the $180-$210 million band.

R&D costs are expected to be within $675-$725 million. SG&A expenses are anticipated in the range of $780-$830 million.

The company expects adjusted net income in the range of $260-$310 million, the midpoint of which indicates growth of more than 70%.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted -27.34% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, BioMarin has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, BioMarin has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

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最近的负面�岢中较乱淮蔚挠⒉迹故荁ioMarin将�黄疲吭谖颐巧钊胙芯客蹲收吆头治罱姆从χ埃梦颐窍壤纯纯此罱挠ǜ妫员愀玫卣莆罩匾拇呋痢�

毕马林第四财季业绩胜于销售小姐

BioMarin的�墒找嫖�25美分，高于Zack的21美分的普遍预期。去年第一季度，该公司每股�美分.

该季度的总收入为4.544亿美元，较上年同期�9%，原�肥杖朐Ｏ鄱畹陀赯ack的一致估计值4.62亿美元。

季度细节

第四季度产品收入(包括Aldurazyme)为4.366亿美元，同比�5.7%。BioMarin的营销品牌(不包括Aldurazyme)的产品收入同比�5%，达到4.127亿美元。该季度的版税和其他收入为1790�哂谝荒昵暗�600��

北�径忍匦砭鄱钔仍8%，至1.543亿美元。库文的收入��9%，达到1.226亿美元，这是受北美病人�耐贫�

Palynziq公司本季度的注射销售额为3，170�弦患径任�2，410�禄颊呖冀邮苤瘟疲约霸嚼丛蕉嗟牟∪耸迪至宋钟靡alynziq的�窒劾醋悦拦＝刂�2019年12月30日，共有762名美国商业患者在接受Palynziq治疗，而在第三季度末，这一数字为670人。在762例患者中，137例来自临床研究，625例未接受Palynziq治疗。另外143名病人已经登记，正在等待他们第一次接受Palynziq治疗。

在欧盟，Palynziq注射液于5月�肌ioMarin说，德国�亩嗉艺锼衷诙荚谥瘟撇∪恕８霉菊铝τ诨渌分薰业谋ㄏ迹⑵谕�2020年从欧洲销售的Palynziq中�幸庖宓墓毕住�

Naglazyz的销售额��24%，达到9480�醋园臀┑ァ�

Vimizim在总收入中贡献了1.323亿美元，与去年同期相比��16%，原�拦∪说脑桶臀┑ァ�

Naglazyz和Vimzim的收入按季度不同，�且恍┕�(�前臀中央政府订单的时间安排。

Brineura第四季度的销售额为2，520�哂谏弦患径缺ǜ娴�1，980�∪说脑�

本季度，BioMarin从Genzyz�俗芗�2390�腁ldurazyme版税，同比�7%。

由于管道开发的成本，研发费用同比�.9%，达到1.555亿美元。与Palynziq商业努力和Valrox�急赶喙氐挠延玫贾耂G&A费用�5.6%，达到1.612亿美元。

截至2019年12月31日，BioMarin拥有12亿美元的现�纸畚锖屯蹲剩�2019年9月30日相同。

2019年结果

2019年全年销售额�4%，至17.亿美元，略低于Zack的17.1亿美元的普遍预期。然而，销售额在指导范围内为16.9-17.2亿美元。

�抗墒找嫖�93美分，高于Zack一致预期的89美分。收入同比�2%。

2020年指南

BioMarin预计，2020年的总收入将在19.5亿至20.5亿美元之间，这意味着该区间中期�7%。Vimizim全年的销售额预计在560-6.1亿美元之间。库文的销售额预计在4.3亿至4.8亿美元之间。那加酶的销售额预计在3.8亿至4.2亿美元之间。Brineura的销售额预计在85-1.15亿美元之间。Palynziq的销售额预计在1.8亿至2.1亿美元之间。

研发成本预计在6.75-7.25亿美元之间。预计SG&A费用在7.8亿至8.3亿美元之间。

该公司预计�焕.6亿至3.1亿美元之间，中点显示��70%。

从那以�兰剖侨绾伪浠模�

事实证�诠サ囊桓铮碌墓兰剖氏陆登Ｓ捎谡庑┍浠庖还彩豆兰品⑸吮浠�--27.34%。

VGM分数

目前，BioMarin的成长得分很高，虽然它在动量得分方面落�芏啵贒方面，按照相同的过程，股票在价值方面被分配了一�，这使得它在投资策略上排在了最�0%。

总的来说，股票的总VGM分数为B。如果你不专注于一种策略，那么这�褪悄阌Ω酶行巳さ摹�

展望

对股票的估计一直在�认陆担庑┬拚姆缺砻陆档那Ｖ档米⒁獾氖牵珺ioMarin有一�kRank#3(稍等)。我们预计，在未来几�冢霉山谙呋乇ā�

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