Treasury Secretary Bessent, Multiple Fed Officials Set for Busy Speaking Week.CPI Release Remains in Limbo.【The week ahead】

TradingKey - U.S. stocks pulled back last week from record highs, with the tech sector posting its largest decline in nearly six months.

With the U.S. government shutdown persisting, the release of key inflation data—including the CPI and PPI reports—remains in limbo. Market attention turns to a busy week of commentary from Federal Reserve officials and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for fresh insights on policy and the economy.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 66.5% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December.

Warren Buffett is set to release his annual letter to shareholders over the Thanksgiving week. Widely anticipated, this could be the legendary investor’s final letter as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, drawing significant focus from investors worldwide.

Preview of major events

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent Joins Fed Officials in Pivotal Week of Public Commentary

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and a host of Federal Reserve officials are set to deliver a flurry of public remarks next week, potentially offering fresh insights into the central bank’s policy path.

Speakers include New York Fed President John Williams, a permanent FOMC voter; Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker; Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic; and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem—all scheduled to speak during the week.

Divergence among Fed policymakers over a December rate cut remains wide. Last week, some officials appeared undecided on whether another cut is warranted next month, while others signaled reluctance to continue easing. In contrast, newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran has reiterated calls for faster and more aggressive rate cuts.

U.S. Government Shutdown Continues, Putting CPI and PPI Data Releases in Limbo

The U.S. government shutdown has now entered its 40th day, pushing back the release of the October nonfarm payrolls report—initially scheduled for last Friday—for a second time. With that, all eyes are on whether the upcoming October CPI and PPI data will be published as planned this week.

Markets expect the October CPI to rise 0.2% month-over-month, with the year-over-year rate moderating to 2.9%. If actual data meets expectations, it would suggest inflation pressures are not broadly accelerating—potentially clearing the way for the Federal Reserve to deliver another rate cut in December.

Stablecoin Leader Circle (CRCL) and AI Compute Upstart CoreWeave (CRWV) Set to Report Earnings

This week, several high-profile companies are set to report earnings, including AI compute upstart CoreWeave (CRWV), Nebius (NBIS.US), stablecoin leader Circle (CRCL.US), quantum computing firm Quantum Computing (QUBT.US), as well as established U.S. corporations Cisco (CSCO.US), Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US), and Disney (DIS.US). On the Asian front, Tencent Holdings (00700.HK), JD.com (JD), Bilibili (BILI), and SMIC (00981.HK) will also release their latest results.

Markets expect CoreWeave’s revenue to continue its explosive growth trajectory. However, investors remain cautious about the company’s elevated valuation, high leverage, and significant customer concentration risk tied to Microsoft.

Selected Economic Data

Tuesday: UK October Unemployment Rate

Wednesday: U.S. October Unadjusted CPI Year-over-Year

Friday: U.S. October Retail Sales Month-over-Month

This week's featured events

Tuesday: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent delivers speech

Thursday: Boston Fed President Susan Collins speaks

Friday: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem delivers remarks

Corporate Earnings

Tuesday: CoreWeave (CRWV)

Wednesday: Cisco (CSCO.O)

Thursday: Disney (DIS.N), JD.com (09618.HK), Tencent Holdings (00700.HK)