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2016-12-07 00:00

Euro Falls to 20-Month Low After Italian Referendum (JPM)

意大利公投后欧元跌至20个月新低

 

In a tearful speech on Monday, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi said he would submit his resignation after citizens voted against constitutional reform in a national referendum. Voter turnout was at 65 percent and 60 percent of the votes were cast for "no." Although the referendum had nothing to do with EU membership, since Renzi is viewed as a pro-EU member of the establishment, the result is seen as a victory by populist groups in Italy critical of the Eurozone. Far-right leaders from across Europe tweeted their support for the Italian people's decision.

意大利首相伦齐在周一演讲中表示:自己将在全民公投反对修宪后提交辞呈。选民投票率为65%,其中60%都投了反对票。虽然此次公投与欧盟无关,但由于伦齐被视为亲欧盟派,因此公投结果被视为意大利民粹组织反欧盟的意大利人民党的胜利。欧洲极右翼领导人发推文表示支持意大利人民的决定。

The response of the Euro was immediate as it fell as much as 1.4 percent to a 20-month low against the U.S. dollar before sharply pulling out of its dive and trading 0.36% higher by mid-morning. Only nine of 53 forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg estimate that the euro will reach parity with the U.S. dollar by the end of 2017.

受意大利公投影响,欧元兑美元汇率立刻下跌1.4%,创20个月新低,随后稍有上涨,至上午十点左右,涨幅为0.36%。据彭博调查,53位预测者中仅有9位认为截至2017年底,欧元会与美元等价。

Besides the brief wobble of the euro, however, markets held their nerve. Although the margin by which Renzi lost was higher than expected, it appeared markets had already priced in the outcome. Fears were allayed by media reports that Mario Draghi and the European Central Bank were ready to step in if required. Reuters reported that the European Central Bank would increase its purchases of Italian bonds in the case of political instability and market volatility, driving up Italian bond yields.

虽然欧元汇率短暂波动,但市场仍然保持冷静。虽然反对伦齐公投的票数远超想象,股市价格似乎已经影响了公投结果。据媒体报道,欧洲央行已经做好必要时插手的准备,这缓和了市场恐惧。路透社报道称:在政治动荡和股市波动的情况下,欧洲央行会增持意大利国债,从而使意大利国债收益率上升。

The euro is now recovering from earlier losses, digesting the #Renzi exit. Markets adopting a 'I've seen worse' attitude. This is so 2016.

— Maxime Sbaihi (@MxSba) December 5, 2016

欧元区目前正从先前的经济损失中恢复,消化伦齐退出。市场的态度是“更糟的情况我都见过”。这很2016。

—— Maxime Sbaihi  (@MxSba) ,2016年12月5日

Why would a referendum about an internal political matter make markets nervous? Because Italy is sitting on 286 billion euros of bad debt, and political instability in the country could trigger a European banking crisis.

为何一次国内政治公投事件会造成市场紧张情绪?因为意大利身负2860亿欧元的债务,该国的政治动荡可能引发欧洲银行危机。

"The referendum outcome is negative for Italian banks," said Deutsche Bank analysts   in a note, according to MarketWatch. Author Wolf Richter mused on his blog, "..the already complex – and ultimately very costly – task of dealing with Italy’s zombie banks, after years of brushing toxic waste under the rug, has become vastly more complex in the absence of a government with a mandate. Instability and uncertainty are likely to ricochet from Italy’s banking crisis to the Eurozone and its teetering banks, and beyond."

据市场观察网站,德意志银行分析师在报告中指出,公投结果对意大利银行是利空的。作家Wolf Richer在博客中作了深刻思考,认为意大利的僵尸银行问题十分棘手。动荡和不确定性可能导致意大利银行危机传导到整个欧元区,累及欧元区的银行业和其他行业。

The Economist expects a banking crisis to be averted but said, "The main risk stems from the banking sector, particularly the rescue of Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS), which could render capital increases at several smaller banks impracticable if it fails. The situation at MPS will therefore require delicate handling by the interim government, the ECB and the European Commission.

经济学家预计银行危机可以避免,但他们认为:主要的风险来自银行业,尤其是意大利西雅那银行(MPS),如果银行业崩溃就会使规模更小的银行难以实现增资。因此临时政府、欧洲央行以及欧洲委员会要小心处理西雅那银行。

Elsewhere in Europe, the rightwing suffered a brutal defeat in the presidential elections in Austria, and Britain's Supreme Court will begin to hear the government's appeal in the Brexit case.

欧洲其他国家中,奥地利总统大选中右翼分子遭受重挫,英国脱欧后英国最高法庭开始听从政府号令。

 

What Happens Next ?

接下来会怎样?

 

All eyes will now be on the European Central Bank's meeting on Thursday when it will be decided if they are to extend the QE bond-purchasing program. If the Italian government decides to bailout its own banks, its bond holders will have to take losses first. Unlike the U.S., the EU strictly forbids bailouts with taxpayer money.

周四举行的欧洲央行会议将成为公众关注的焦点,这次会议将决定是否实行国债购买的量化宽松政策。如果意大利政府决定救助银行,国债持有者会首先遭受损失。欧洲严格禁止用纳税人的钱来进行救助,这点是跟美国不一样的。

Despite celebrations from the far-right, there is no reason to believe that Italy will leave the European Union or the euro anytime soon. It's unclear if snap elections will be held in Italy following the Prime Minister's resignation. Drawn out political uncertainty, however, will mean Italy's banks will find it difficult to raise capital from investors. A consortium that includes JP Morgan (JPM) was planning to recapitalize the country's most embattled bank, and will meet today to decide their next steps, according to sources speaking with The Financial Times.

尽管极右翼分子庆祝公投未通过,但没有理由认为意大利会很快退出欧盟。现任总理辞职后,意大利是否会进行临时选举还不确定。但是把政治不确定性放一边的话,就意味着意大利银行要从投资者手中获得资金会很困难。根据金融时报的言论,包括摩根大通在内的财团打算对意大利陷入困境的银行进行注资,他们会于今天会面来商议下一步计划。